Interpretation of the two sessionsInterpretation of the two sessions

The fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress has come to an end. As the "wind vane" of national economic development, the "Government Work Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") has been released! It represents the weather vane given by the state and is one of the most certain thematic directions throughout the year. Against the background of the continuous epidemic, the economic downturn and the turbulent external environment, this year's "Report" has attracted special attention.

What direction does the 2022 "Government Work Report" bring to investment? Jingtai Capital has interpreted and sorted out this.

There are many keywords in the two sessions this year. From the perspective of economic growth, there are "climbing through the hurdles", "steady growth", "new development", "high-quality development", etc.; from the perspective of monetary and fiscal policies, there are "improvement" Proactive fiscal policy effectiveness", "increasing the implementation of prudent monetary policy", "expanding the scale of new loans", etc.; from the perspective of innovation-driven development strategies, there are "specialized, refined and new", "digital China", etc.; In terms of consumption and investment, there are "expanding domestic demand" and "driving the expansion of effective investment".

01: The report has set an expected economic growth target of 5.5%, and the signal for steady growth is clear. Where will efforts be made in the future?

The GDP growth target in 2022 is set at around 5.5%, which means that the policy is to stabilize growth rather than strong stimulus. "Stable growth" will mainly focus on fiscal policy, monetary policy, infrastructure real estate investment and other aspects. We believe that the impact on the stock market: the two sessions released a clear signal of "steady growth", which is expected to stabilize market risk appetite and improve market sentiment in the short term.

"Easy money" and "easy credit" continue to increase, and RRR and interest rate cuts are expected, and the medium-term liquidity level is still expected to remain loose; however, there are still many uncertainties overseas this year, including the Fed's interest rate hike and Russia-Ukraine conflict, etc.; overall From the point of view, there are still structural opportunities for A shares, including the direction of "steady growth".

02: The report named the new infrastructure digital economy, what investment opportunities does it contain?

From the perspective of investment opportunities, the overall layout of the digital China construction provides investment opportunities for the computer, electronics, communications and other industries.

● Computer industry: In the process of "East and West Calculation" and the development of digital economy, a new computing network system integrating data center, cloud computing and big data is built. Big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, etc. all play a huge role. There are investment opportunities in sub-divisions such as Xinchuang, cloud computing, network security, artificial intelligence, industrial interconnection, medical IT, and financial technology.

● Electronics industry: There are investment opportunities in 5G base station related PCB manufacturers, semiconductors, consumer electronics and other sectors.

●Communication industry: The 2022 government work report emphasizes building digital information infrastructure, promoting the large-scale application of 5G, and promoting the digital transformation of the industry, without mentioning "speeding up and lowering fees". Since 2017, after five consecutive years of speed-up and tariff-reduction policies, operators’ data rates have continued to drop significantly to a low level. With the easing of speed-up and tariff reduction policies and the increase in 5G user penetration, operators’ mobile ARPU values are expected to continue to rise, driving The three major operators' revenue growth centers have improved, and innovative services have further opened up revenue growth space. There are still investment opportunities for operators.

03: The report also released a signal of stability maintenance in the real estate market. How should it be interpreted?

The report reiterated the premise of "housing, not speculating," but also proposed "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, and promoting a virtuous circle of the real estate industry through city-specific policies. and healthy development”.

The government work report further clarified the direction of regulation of the real estate industry. For a period of time in the future, the main performance will be to avoid the rapid decline in housing prices and ensure a reasonable release of demand. We believe that March 2022 may be a window of opportunity for policy. City-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.

04: The report pointed out that the energy consumption intensity target is coordinated and assessed in the "14th Five-Year Plan". What impact will it have?

In this government work report, it is pointed out that the energy consumption intensity target will be assessed in an overall manner within the "14th Five-Year Plan", with appropriate flexibility, and new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control.

We believe that such an expression is to make the “dual-carbon” development closer to the overall economic situation and resource endowment, and to achieve a more coordinated and orderly development, and the goal of carbon peaking in 2030 has not changed.

The report also pointed out that it is necessary to promote the transition from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emissions and intensity. Under the dual control of energy consumption, green electricity consumption in excess consumption is exempted, and the demand for green electricity will continue to increase.

Green power trading monetizes new energy power. At present, the premium of green power compared to traditional power has risen from 0.03-0.05 yuan/kWh in the first batch of pilot transactions in September 2020 to 0.072 yuan/kWh in Jiangsu's annual transaction in 2022.

It is expected that subsequent provinces will issue detailed rules for the minimum proportion of green power consumption by high-energy-consuming enterprises, and detailed rules for green power transactions in each province. With the continuous advancement of the "dual carbon" goal, the advantages of green power with carbon reduction attributes will be further highlighted, and the demand is expected to continue to increase.

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The above views are only for analysis and reference, not investment advice, please read carefully

Article data source: 2022 "Government Work Report "