The accelerated trend of population aging has become another severe challenge facing my country's elderly care industry after aging. After 21 years of data, the proportion of the population over 60 years old is 18.9%, which is equivalent to one middle-aged and elderly person for every five people. In the next few years, this proportion will exceed 20%, close to the level of developed countries.

We are also one of the fastest countries in the world in terms of the speed of aging, significantly faster than the global level. Pension is an unavoidable problem.

Recently, the State Council Information Office held a policy briefing on the "14th Five-Year Plan for Urban and Rural Community Service System Construction". Ou Xiaoli, director of the Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that we cannot allow the elderly to become "islands of demand" in the Internet age.

To this end, the "White Paper on the Development of China's Elderly Care Industry" issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that my country's elderly care market is vast in the future. It is estimated that by 2030, the scale of my country's elderly care industry will reach 13 trillion yuan.

"However, given the long return cycle of the pension industry, unclear industry standards, and a serious shortage of pension talents, the current supply of enterprises in my country's pension industry is difficult to meet the huge market demand." Industry experts said that smart pension may be a solution. , the state is actively advocating smart old-age care, and at the same time increasing policy support, various companies have also stepped up research and development efforts, and smart old-age care may become the general trend in the future."

The era of deep aging is coming

From the data of the seventh national census released in the first half of 2021, my country's population aging mainly presents five characteristics: high degree, fast speed, large urban-rural differences, large regional differences, and deviation from the level of economic development.

The degree of population aging continues to increase, and the trend of aging is obvious. According to the census results, by the end of 2020, my country's population aged 60 and above was 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70% of the total population; the population aged 65 and above was 190.64 million, accounting for 13.50% of the total population. Among them, the population aged 80 and over accounted for 2.54% of the total population, an increase of 0.98 percentage points over 2010; the proportion of the population aged 60 and over was 13.56%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points over 2010, showing an obvious trend of aging. .

The intensification of aging is accompanied by the growth of aging, which indicates that the internal structure of the elderly population in my country is also changing rapidly, and the demand for elderly care services and health services will grow faster than the elderly population due to aging, showing a structural effect.

Domestic pension demand tends to diversify

From ordinary needs to rigid needs: the needs of the self-care elderly from 60 to 75 years old are mainly ordinary life needs, such as fitness, entertainment, social interaction, travel, etc. The medical needs of the elderly at this stage are usually for the purpose of treating diseases ; The needs of the disabled elderly from 75 to 90 years old are mainly medical needs. Most of the elderly at this stage suffer from one or more chronic diseases as their physical functions decline, and they basically need long-term medical services. The purpose of receiving all services is to prolong life.

Insufficient supply forces industrial development

Facing the changing demands of the increasingly complex elderly population, the supply of my country's elderly care industry is far from enough. According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, by the end of 2021, there will be 340,000 elderly care service institutions and facilities nationwide with 8.172 million beds. Among them, there are 39,000 elderly care institutions with 4.997 million beds; 301,000 community elderly care service institutions and facilities with 3.175 million beds. Considering only the 35.8 million people over the age of 80 with poor self-care ability, it can be seen that the supply-side infrastructure is seriously insufficient.

As a result, in 2021, relevant policies to encourage the development of the elderly care industry have been introduced in many places, and real estate, insurance, financial institutions, investment institutions and other industry entities have begun to scramble to deploy elderly care real estate and seize the market.

Smart old age care becomes the general trend

"Smart old-age care" means that the elderly can enjoy a high-quality elderly life without the constraints of time and space. , Service institutions form an organic whole, providing convenient, efficient, materialized, interconnected and intelligent elderly care services for the elderly.

According to Zhiyan Consulting data, the scale of China's pension industry in 2019 was 7.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; in 20 years, the scale of China's pension industry was about 8.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.

At present, the scale of the domestic smart health and elderly care industry is about 3.2 trillion yuan, with a compound growth rate of more than 18% in the past three years. In the context of an aging population and the rapid development of the digital economy, smart old-age care has great potential and may become the key to solving the problem of old-age care in the future.

The article is an analysis point of view of Jingtai and does not constitute investment advice. Please read it carefully.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics