The Globalization Think Tank (CCG) recently released the Report on China and Globalization in 2023, which combed and predicted the trend of globalization in 2023 from ten perspectives, including China US relations, Ukraine crisis, the international financial system, the "the Belt and Road", international tourism, digital economy, and climate change. What important information is in the report? Jingtai will help you interpret it.
| Sino-US relations may usher in a stable window period
According to the 2023 China and Globalization Report, China-US relations may usher in a new window of stability in 2023, and both sides avoid further decline in bilateral relations through twists and turns. After several years of adjustment and layout, Sino-US relations have shown some clearer points. In 2023, Sino-US relations may reach a new historical node and usher in a new window of stability. The two sides will continue to interact and exchange cautiously to avoid further decline of bilateral relations through twists and turns.
The Ukrainian crisis may enter the stage of coexistence of negotiation and conflict, and the tearing state caused by the crisis will continue. According to the report, the Ukrainian crisis may enter the stage of negotiation and conflict in 2023. If the international community is properly involved, the crisis may enter a "frozen" state. However, the global division caused by the Ukrainian crisis will continue, and the anti-Russian camp dominated by developed countries will be formed around the world. With the decline of European economic strength, the leading position of the United States in the western camp has been further consolidated. Although the Ukrainian crisis will not change the overall trend of economic globalization, the crisis will adjust the relationship between the three regional value chain systems of the world, and the two value chain systems of the United States and Europe will be more closely integrated.
| China's economic recovery boosts world economic confidence
According to the report, the world may enter into "stagflation", and China expects to use consumption as the engine of economic recovery and development. In 2023, there will be "stagflation" in the global economy, that is, stagnation of economic development and inflation are highly likely to occur at the same time, which will cause some economies in the world to fall into recession. The impact of "stagflation" on China's economy is relatively low. With the gradual recovery of the domestic market circulation order, consumption is expected to become the main driving force for economic growth, and China's position in the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain will also be steadily improved. The global supply chain will accelerate its adjustment under the influence of geopolitics, the COVID-19 epidemic and the inflation derived from both. The position of the Asia Pacific region in the global manufacturing industry will further rise, while the European industry chain will move outward.
2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the the Belt and Road Initiative. The report shows that the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road" will highlight more multilateralism and deepen its integration with other international mechanisms. This combination may occur more between China and Gulf countries, African countries and Latin American countries. The adaptability and resilience of the "the Belt and Road" will also be continued to adapt to the global market and demand.
According to the report, the steady recovery of China's economy in 2023 will boost confidence in world economic growth and help the world economic recovery. In 2023, the important role of state-owned enterprises will continue to highlight, and the reform of state-owned enterprises will be further deepened; Private enterprises have developed and expanded, and policies have helped to relieve difficulties; Foreign-funded enterprises are optimistic about China's economic prospects, and the investment boom in China will continue.
| The global monetary system and financial system will continue to adjust
The Report points out that the global monetary system will gradually end the interest rate raising cycle in 2023, and the global capital liquidity will improve. However, inflation caused by supply chain and commodity price fluctuations may force central banks around the world to keep interest rates at the current high level, and the low interest rate situation since 2008 has ended.
CCG analysis shows that although the pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is likely to slow down gradually in 2023, the strong trend of the US dollar will continue to some extent, leading to debt risk in developing countries that have been sought after by international capital or have high external debt in the past few years.
Although the credit of the US dollar system was affected after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the influence of the US dollar on the world remains unchanged. At present, there is no alternative to the US dollar that can be anchored by national currencies. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will remain relatively stable in 2023, and the Chinese government will continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB at the bilateral and multilateral levels. In addition, continuing to promote the construction of overseas RMB offshore centers is also an important path for RMB internationalization in the future.
| The world may enter "stagflation"
According to the Report, in 2023, there will be "stagflation" in the global economy, that is, there is a great possibility that the stagnation of economic development and inflation will occur at the same time, which will lead to the recession of some global economies in 2023.
The impact of "stagflation" on China's economy is relatively low. With the gradual recovery of the domestic market circulation order, consumption is expected to become the main driving force for economic growth, and China's position in the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain will also be steadily improved.
The global supply chain will speed up adjustment due to geopolitical, COVID-19 epidemic and inflation derived from both. The supply chain has become shorter and the regionalization has become increasingly obvious. The position of the Asia-Pacific region in the global manufacturing industry will be further enhanced, and the European industrial chain will have a trend of outward migration.
The Report pointed out that in the era of increasing uncertainty, all economies have strengthened their determination to "warm up together". The existing regional economic cooperation system has been further strengthened. In addition to the recent free trade agreements such as CPTPP and RCEP, which will continue to play an important role, the BRICS cooperation mechanism and the US-led India-Pacific Economic Cooperation Framework (IPEF) will also have a profound economic impact.
| The global digital economic governance is becoming increasingly modular
According to the analysis of the Report, the global digital economy will maintain the momentum of rapid growth in 2023. The digital economy will further enhance the value of the manufacturing industry, and will also reflect a higher penetration rate in service trade. The proportion of global digital trade will continue to rise.
At the same time, with the strengthening of digital economy supervision and cooperation in the past two years, regional digital economy supervision and cooperation will form a number of sectors around the world, forming a new trend of "bottom-up" promoting the establishment of the global digital economy supervision and cooperation system. China will take a more active part in the development and governance of the global digital economy. For example, from the WTO to the DEPA level, China will use various cooperation platforms to continuously promote the progress of the digital economy in trade facilitation, and sign various data security cooperation initiatives with regional international organizations and cooperation mechanisms based on the Global Data Security Initiative.
