｜In the initial stage, the concept and marketing will be the main focus, and in the medium and long term, it will bring a broad market space
At this stage, the underlying technology is still unable to support various imagined experiences, and there are still many uncertainties in terms of technical route, required time, and commercialization effects. In the early stage, related companies are expected to make their voices heard in the metaverse subdivisions of games, NFTs, terminal equipment, virtual humans, social applications, etc., which will continue to attract market attention, but it will take time for the performance to be realized.
VR/AR shipments will be about 11 million units in 2021, and Counterpoint predicts that it will reach 105 million units by 2025 (smartphone shipments reached 112 million units in 2008, 1.167 billion units in 2014, and a 10-fold increase in 6 years). It is conservatively estimated that the size of the XR terminal market in 2040 will not be less than 420 billion US dollars.
Core assumption: It is conservatively estimated that XR will complete the replacement of smartphone terminals by 2040, and the shipments and prices will remain the same (superimposed on the logic of Internet penetration improvement)
time | Annual shipments (100 million units) | ASP (USD) | Market size (billion US dollars) |
2025 | 0.8 | 500 | 400 |
2030 | 4 | 400 | 1600 |
2040 | 14 | 300 | 4200 |
｜Long-term user consumption space forecast: 10 trillion US dollars
For single-user consumption, using the annual growth rate and annual growth rate of single-user consumption to calculate, the 20-year single-user consumption increases by about 1.7 times and 9.7 times, respectively, and the increase in the number of Internet users is expected to bring about 9 trillion and $42 trillion in incremental space.
｜Development Logic: Exploring the Possible Path of the Metaverse from the Development of Mobile Internet
｜Path judgment: software first, hardware opening, and finally combined development
Compared with the development path of the mobile Internet, it is judged that a number of software applications related to the Metaverse will be implemented first, and the emergence of the next generation of intelligent interactive terminals in the medium term will fully open the Metaverse, and the combination of software applications and the next generation of intelligent terminals in the medium and long term, Complete the generational upgrade of efficiency and experience.
