On June 13, Luo Yonghao announced on Weibo that he was withdrawing from Weibo and all social platforms. At the same time, in an interview with LatePost, he confirmed that he would start a business in the field of AR (augmented reality) again. He "believes that AR is the next generation computing platform." ”, and the current time window for starting a business in the AR field is particularly good, “big technology companies basically do not have all-in AR.” Luo Yonghao hopes to "make something like the iPhone + iOS in 2007 in the AR era, and become an Apple-like company on the next platform". Start your business again. "'True Legend' is coming to an end, and he is going to start a business again.

｜Why did Luo Yonghao choose AR?

Regarding why he chose AR to start a new business, Luo Yonghao said that after talking with several partners in the past three years, there are only two directions that he is really interested in and is willing to invest in the rest of his life. One is electric vehicles, and the other is the next-generation computing platform. . Unlike mobile phones, electric vehicles have a very mature foundry. It may take at least five or six years from start to mass production, and the capital requirements are many times larger. We comprehensively estimated the difficulty and time window, and felt that it was too late. In the end, we naturally chose AR.

Luo Yonghao said that he felt that the essence of VR was more like a game console, and he believed that AR was the next-generation computing platform.

Luo Yonghao also said that a very important factor in choosing AR is that the time window is particularly good for a team of our level. On the other hand, almost all startups around the world are fully committed to AR with small teams of one or two hundred people. At such a small scale, in any case, a team of one or two hundred people will not be able to come up with something that can be used and commercialized for more than ten years. Therefore, as a team whose comprehensive resources are seriously insufficient and more than the next, a time window of about five years and an annual project volume of several thousand people are more appropriate.

Regarding the specific planning, Luo Yonghao said that our hardware team will develop an engineering machine every year, which in principle is limited to internal development and use, and will not be sold until the commercialization conditions and the overall environment are generally mature.

｜What is the future development space of the AR field chosen by Luo Yonghao?

Data shows that AR will outpace VR in 2021, with enterprise adoption leading the way. According to the 2022 V1 version of IDC's "Global Augmented and Virtual Reality Spending Guide" recently released by the International Data Corporation IDC, the total global AR/VR investment scale in 2021 will be close to $14.67 billion, and it is expected to increase to $74.73 billion in 2026. The five-year compound growth rate (CAGR) will reach 38.5%.

According to verified market research, the global augmented reality software market size was valued at USD 8.59 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 137.14 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 57.21% from 2021 to 2028. The compound growth rate of the Chinese market is expected to reach 43.8%, ranking first in the world.

According to a report by softwaretestinghelp, a foreign evaluation website, AR will grow at a compound growth rate of 20% in the retail sector, 27% in the healthcare sector, and 10% in the automotive sector. The head-mounted display market will grow at a compound growth rate of 22%, the flat panel display market will grow at a compound growth rate of 17%, and the mixed reality segment will grow at a compound growth rate of 68%.

Jingtai believes that the current AR development is very rapid, and both the upstream supply chain and scene implementation have achieved great development. Upstream optical waveguides and full-color MicroLED are progressing faster, and major manufacturers are also stepping up their efforts to deploy upstream supply chains. At present, Google has acquired MicroLED manufacturer Raxium, and Snapchat has acquired WaveOptics, a leading manufacturer of surface relief grating waveguides. The industry chain has entered the early stage of the outbreak.

In terms of scene implementation, AR has shown strong demand in the industrial field. Among them, the leading company RealWear has developed rapidly, its influence in the industry has continued to rise, and its sales have achieved a three-fold year-on-year growth. A new milestone for a number of companies, which are currently preparing for IPOs. It is expected that AR will further develop rapidly in various industries in the future.

｜How much potential does Luo Yonghao believe in AR intelligence?

After 10 years of commercialization of AR equipment, Google took the lead in putting it into the market in 2012. At present, the Microsoft HoloLens series is the mainstream, targeting the enterprise market. Google released the Extended Reality Glasses in 2012, projecting smartphone information to users for direct communication, but the glasses are expensive, short battery life and severe heat generation, and will be gradually withdrawn from the market in the future. The launch of the phenomenal AR mobile game "Pokemon GO" in 2015 once again aroused the market's attention to AR devices. In the same year, the Microsoft HoloLens generation was released. HoloLens has a solid technical foundation and accurate customer group positioning. Its development team and the original team of Kinect, the Xbox game machine sensor controller, were originally designed as productivity tools, mainly for professional use and enterprise users. one.

The AR market has a large space for imagination, and the richness of Metaverse-related design applications will promote the development of hardware. According to forecasts, global AR device shipments will increase from 1.03 million units in 2021 to 41.23 million units in 2026, with a CAGR of 109%, and the market size is expected to exceed US$20 billion.

IDC predicts that by 2025, China's AR device shipments will reach nearly 4 million units, which may be the single largest market in the world. According to the calculation of Yiou Think Tank in the "2021 China VR/AR Industry Research Report", from 2020 to 2025, China's AR terminal hardware shipments will maintain an average annual compound growth rate of 103.4%, much higher than VR equipment. It is estimated that by 2025, China's AR terminal hardware shipments will reach 20.88 million units, and the domestic AR terminal hardware market size will also increase, reaching 125.3 billion yuan.

In May of this year, IDC released the 2022 V1 edition of IDC's Worldwide Augmented and Virtual Reality Spending Guide. As far as the AR market is concerned, IDC predicts that in 2026, AR training, industrial maintenance, and AR labs and field practice (higher education) will become mainstream application scenarios, accounting for about 30.1% of China's AR market investment. In terms of industry applications, since 2021, new product releases and changes in the marketing model of headset manufacturers have gradually opened the consumer-grade headset market, and the consumer market has great potential to be developed.

From the perspective of the commercial market, by 2026, AR/VR technology will be widely used by users in three industries, including education, healthcare, and professional services, accounting for about 28.2% of the total market size in China.