There is a famous saying in the business world: if you can't beat them, buy them.
Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash. The price is a 54% premium compared to Twitter's closing price on January 28, and the value of the acquisition will exceed $43 billion, or about 274 billion yuan.
Twitter said it had received an offer from the world's richest man and would carefully review the offer.
According to Musk's proposal, after the acquisition of Twitter plans to take it private, he believes that Twitter needs a "transformation." Shares of Twitter rose as much as 13% on Thursday before closing down. Tesla shares closed down 3.66%.
Musk said the latest offer was his "best and final offer," adding that if Twitter didn't accept it, he would have to reconsider whether to give up his other 9 percent. He has been buying Twitter shares since the end of January this year, and he has spent $2.6 billion to add 73.1 million shares, or more than 9 percent, according to the company's disclosures at the time.
▎Why did Musk buy Twitter?
Musk, who has 81 million followers on Twitter, is an avid user of the service but also one of its loudest critics. Obviously, both for Tesla and himself, it is a huge traffic entrance, which cannot be missed, because once the personal account "disappears", the loss is immeasurable. So, this is one of the main reasons why Musk bought Twitter.
In response to this incident, Musk also launched a wave of voting on Twitter. Nearly 80% of the global netizens supported Musk, and Musk, who received high support, also made a high-profile confession on Twitter. He said on Twitter that he was seriously considering creating a new social media platform.
In the past few years, Musk’s tweets have not only boosted the exposure of Dogecoin and other digital currencies, but also saved Tesla a lot of advertising costs. Because his remarks on digital currency have made him a lot of money in the past, in order to better "bring goods", it seems to be very cost-effective to "buy out" a social media. Even if he fails to achieve his goal in the end, then the big acquisition will push up Twitter's stock price. Musk can also cash out at a high level when it reaches a high level. Besides, he has mastered Twitter's communication with Tesla and digital currency. The most important move at the entrance to the Metaverse.
Musk admits that he is not sure whether the acquisition will be successful, but if Twitter rejects his proposal, he has a plan B. He says he doesn't care about making money on Twitter, his goal is to hold as much stock as possible. "I have enough assets, if possible, I can do it."
▎What was the Twitter response?
Twitter has confirmed receipt of Musk's unsolicited non-binding takeover proposal and held a meeting to discuss it, while Twitter will review Musk's offer at the advice of Goldman Sachs and WilsonSonsini Goodrich & Rosati.
Twitter shareholder Saudi Prince Alwaleedbin Talal rejected Musk's takeover proposal, arguing that the offer did not come close to Twitter's intrinsic value. It is reported that Twitter is considering a "poison pill defense" to prevent Musk from significantly increasing his stake.
In addition, other Twitter shareholders also responded by "fighting back." Asset manager Vanguard Group recently increased its stake in Twitter, making it now the company's largest shareholder. Vanguard disclosed on April 8 that it currently owns 82.4 million Twitter shares, or a 10.3 percent stake in the company.
Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal said the company has a strong culture of protecting users and "no one can change that".
Twitter did not immediately respond to questions about when it plans to make a decision.
▎ How likely is it that Twitter will accept the offer?
Some analysts say that's unlikely to happen. Twitter has a less than 50 percent chance of accepting the offer, some senior stock analysts said in a note Thursday. Meanwhile, some other market analysts said Twitter may be looking around for other buyers.
In the eyes of these analysts, the deal will not be completed at this price level, and Twitter's board will not believe the offer, or the changes to the company that Musk is leading, are in the best interests of the company or its shareholders.
Some of Twitter's biggest investors thought the offer was too low. Saudi billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal said in a tweet that he doesn't think Musk's offer is "closer to Twitter's intrinsic value because its growth prospects are very good."
The venture capitalist and one of the company's early investors tweeted that "Twitter is too important to be owned and controlled by one person" and that the platform should be decentralized. Separately, according to reliable sources, the board deems Musk's bid "undesirable," and Twitter is expected to fight the acquisition.
One refuses to acquire, the other wants to control. The contradiction between the two cannot be reconciled overnight. What do you think of Musk's operation?
The article is an analysis point of view of Jingtai and does not constitute investment advice. Please read it carefully.