Recently, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew S. Percoco gave a more positive view on the commercialization prospects of Robotaxi (driverless taxis) after attending the TMT conference in San Francisco and visiting Tesla's Texas Gigafactory. He particularly affirmed Tesla's progress in solving complex edge scenarios such as "getting on and off the bus".

However, the bank maintains an "equal weight" rating (i.e., neutral view) on Tesla, with a target price of $415, and continues to expect Cybercab mass production to begin in April 2026.

| Robotaxi's real "unmanned" proving ground is actually in Austin

While Tesla has deployed hundreds of Robotaxis in the San Francisco Bay Area, local regulations still require a safety officer in the driver's seat — so it's not really "driverless" yet.

The place where you really let go of unsupervised testing is Austin, Texas.

Morgan Stanley expects Tesla's Robotaxi fleet to reach about 1,500 units by the end of 2026.

Currently, Tesla is deliberately slowing down in Austin, with the aim of polishing operational details. The company plans to expand its Robotaxi service to seven more cities in the first half of 2026, and expects the transition from "supervised" to "completely unmanned" in new cities will be shorter than the original six months in Austin.

Of course, problems are inevitable in the process. For example, the accidents recorded by NHTSA (National Transportation Safety Administration) have fluctuated recently, but Morgan Stanley believes that this is normal - mainly because of the complex scenarios unique to ride-hailing such as getting on and off the bus, and these are the most missing parts of Tesla's existing FSD data.

| Optimus: The story is grand, and the landing is still far away

Compared to Robotaxi, which already has actual road tests and a clear timeline, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus is still in its early stages.

Morgan Stanley expects that the original release of Optimus Gen 3 may be delayed to the second quarter of 2026, but the more critical node is whether mass production (SOP) can be launched in the second half of 2026.

But even then, the first Optimus offline will have very limited functionality – probably only for simple tasks.

To this end, Tesla is even considering setting up the "Optimus Academy" to collect data, train robots, and optimize AI models.

In terms of computing power, most of Tesla's new Cortex 2 supercomputing center will be used for Optimus training.

Musk also revealed on the X platform that the company is developing a digital system called "Digital Optimus" that will not only dispatch humanoid robots in the future, but also orchestrate tasks for autonomous vehicles such as Cybercab.

So how much impact does Optimus have on Tesla's stock price?

In Morgan Stanley's $415 price target, Optimus contributed $60 per share — but this figure has been discounted by 50% because analysts have only given it a 50% probability of success, reflecting the market's high level of doubt about whether humanoid robots can actually be commercialized.

In contrast, network services such as FSD subscriptions contributed $145 per share, and travel businesses such as Robotaxi contributed $125 per share, which are the two pillars of the current valuation.

Tesla is entering the "peak period of burning money"

Morgan Stanley expects Tesla's capital expenditure to exceed $20 billion in 2026 (excluding the Terafab chip factory project), more than doubling from 2025, resulting in a free cash flow gap of about $8 billion that year.

By 2027, spending is expected to fall slightly to around $16 billion. If demand for electric vehicles picks up and profit margins improve by then, the company's cash flow may gradually return to equilibrium.

So, where is the money mainly spent? Four directions:

self-purchased Optimus robots for internal training, each costing more than $250,000; Expansion of the Robotaxi fleet – about 3,000 owned vehicles are expected to be deployed in 2027; increase computing power investment for FSD and Optimus training; Build a self-developed AI chip factory (Terafab) - the total investment of this project may be as high as 35 billion to 45 billion US dollars!

The good news is that Tesla currently has about $44 billion in cash, which is enough to support these large investments in the short term. But Morgan Stanley also issued a warning: if car sales do not recover as expected and high investment continues, Tesla will likely need to replenish funds through bond issuance or equity financing in 2027.

Jingtai point of view|Look at the rhythm and layout in stages

For US Stock Investors (TSLA):

In the short term (2026), we will keep an eye on two major nodes: whether the mass production of Cybercab will start as scheduled in April;

Q2 Is the scope of FSD unsupervised push expanded?

If Robotaxi successfully increases volume, the FSD subscription rate is expected to jump, and the stock price may regain momentum; However, if capital expenditure gets out of control and car deliveries are weak, the cash flow gap of 8 billion will become a hanging sword.

Mapping of the industrial chain:

Positive: modular manufacturing equipment manufacturers; Plastic composite material suppliers (alternative metal bodies);

Autonomous driving simulation and edge scenario test platform.

Be vigilant: traditional Tier 1 suppliers (Tesla's vertical integration accelerates); High-valuation pure robot concept stocks (Optimus is still far from landing).

Risk warning:

If NHTSA stops unsupervised testing due to an accident, the progress of Robotaxi will be hindered; If the self-developed chip factory (Terafab) invests more than $40 billion, it will further exacerbate cash flow pressure; If macro interest rates remain high, the high capital expenditure pattern will be more difficult to sustain.