On May 31, data released by Statistics Korea showed that chip inventories fell 33.7% year-on-year in April, the largest decline since the end of 2014. According to the data released by the Ministry of Science and Information Communication of South Korea a few days ago, chip exports in April increased by 53.9% year-on-year, of which the export value of memory chips increased by 98.7% year-on-year.
Global customers are accelerating the purchase of AI chips, demand is growing faster than supply, and the recovery momentum is exceeding expectations, which is undoubtedly good news for the global chip industry.
AI detonates demand
With the development and iteration of artificial intelligence technology, the demand for memory chips by global enterprises has surged. SK hynix has become a core HBM supplier to NVIDIA, and Samsung is also striving to join the ranks.
South Korea is home to two of the world's largest memory chip manufacturers, among which SK hynix, the global HBM hegemon, has become NVIDIA's core HBM supplier, Nvidia H100 The AI GPU is equipped with the HBM storage system manufactured by SK hynix. In addition, Nvidia H200 AI GPUs and the latest AI based on the Blackwell architecture The HBM storage of the GPU will also be equipped with the latest generation of HBM storage system produced by SK hynix, HBM3E, and the other major HBM3E supplier is the storage giant Micron Technology (MU. US)。
Samsung, another major storage giant from South Korea, is the world's largest supplier of DRAM and NAND memory chips, and is also striving to become one of the suppliers of Nvidia's HBM and the next generation of HBM3E. Samsung's market share in the field of DDR series memory chips (such as DDR4, DDR5) and SSD and other memory segments is far ahead of other memory chip manufacturers.
Based on the unexpected recovery of the chip industry, the Bank of Korea also sharply raised its economic growth forecast for South Korea in 2024.
According to data released by the Ministry of Science and ICT of South Korea a few days ago, South Korea's exports of information and communication technology (ICT) products soared 33.8% year-on-year to US$17.08 billion in April, growing for the sixth consecutive month due to strong global demand.
Prices are soaring
From the perspective of the global market, the semiconductor track is ushering in a strong recovery. According to data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) a few days ago, global semiconductor sales in the first quarter of 2024 totaled $137.7 billion, a significant increase of 15.2% from the first quarter of 2023. Regarding the 2024 semiconductor industry sales forecast, John of SIA's President and CEO In the data report, Neuffer expects overall sales to increase by the double-digit level in 2024 compared to 2023.
世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）预测，2024年全球半导体市场将同比增长13.1%。
如果周期性技术复苏扩大到其他电子终端市场，将支持半导体进入下一轮上升周期，从今年下半年持续到2025年。
Among them, memory chips are the most important segment of the semiconductor market, which is mainly divided into flash memory and memory. According to the data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) in the United States, the sales of the global semiconductor industry will reach US$526.8 billion in 2023, the sales of logic chips, the largest category, will reach US$178.5 billion, and memory chips will rank second with sales of US$92.3 billion (about 660 billion yuan), accounting for about 17.5% of the global semiconductor market.
As the global memory chip continues to recover, mainstream memory chip manufacturers have taken the lead in opening the price increase mode. Q1 2024, NAND Selling prices for Flash (its core product) rose 15%-19% quarter-on-quarter in yen-on-month terms, marking the third consecutive quarter of increases.
The global semiconductor storage industry has gradually entered an upward cycle
Recently, after Western Digital, a major memory manufacturer in the United States, announced a price increase, Seagate Technology also announced a follow-up price increase. According to Seagate Technology's announcement, many parts of the company's business are gradually recovering demand, delivery cycles are extended, and costs continue to be affected by global inflation. As a result, Seagate Technology will increase prices for new orders and demand in excess of previously committed quantities for several quarters.
According to TrendForce's latest forecast, the quarterly price increase of DRAM contracts in the second quarter will be revised upwards to 13%-18%. NAND The quarterly increase in the price of Flash contracts was revised upward to about 15%-20%. According to the research and judgment of many institutions, memory chips will continue to rise in price in the second quarter.
The price trend is clear, and storage has entered a new round of upward cycle, seizing the opportunity of industry cycle reversal. In the future, with the improvement of operating profit margins brought about by the continuous increase in storage prices, leading storage manufacturers are expected to usher in a Davis double click of performance and valuation, and there is a large room for the industry to rebound.
The latest wave of chip demand recovery is expected to continue until at least the first half of next year, as the "AI boom" boosts chip demand in a manner similar to the cloud server expansion in 2016.
