In the past two years, the global photovoltaic industry has emerged against the backdrop of energy structure transformation, with industry scale and installed capacity growth repeatedly reaching new highs. The neutral expectation for global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2024 is expected to be 474GW, a year-on-year increase of 16%, which is significantly slower than the growth rate of 59% in 2023. From the perspective of the four major regional markets, the demand for installed capacity in Asia and Europe has entered a stage of adjustment, maintaining stable growth. The significant rebound in installed demand in the United States will drive the overall market in the Americas to maintain a high growth rate. The acceleration of the energy transformation strategy in the Middle East and Africa, coupled with the decline in component prices, has accelerated the construction progress of large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations in regions such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In terms of market segments, Chile, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye showed remarkable growth.

01 | 2024 will become a turning point for slowing growth. On December 15th, Wood McKenzie released the "Top 10 Energy Forecasts for 2024" on his official website, ranking first among the top 10 predictions for the photovoltaic industry: global solar growth will begin to slow down in 2024. It can be seen from this that this authoritative consulting firm has confidence in its views. Wood McKenzie pointed out that although the global total installed solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly in the next decade, the annual installed capacity growth rate in 2024 will begin to slow down compared to recent years. Michelle Davis, the head of global solar energy at the organization, said that if the forecast for 2023 is true, the average annual growth rate of installed capacity from 2019 to 2023 will be 28%, with a growth rate of 56% in 2023. By contrast, the average annual growth rate of installed capacity from 2024 to 2028 will be around zero, including several years of contraction. The institution pointed out that the growth of the global solar energy market follows a typical S-curve. In the past few years, economic growth has rapidly climbed along the steepest part of the curve. Starting from 2024, the industry will overcome a turning point of slowing growth. The global solar energy market is still many times larger than a few years ago, but as the industry matures, it is natural to follow this growth path. Of course, not every country or region is at the same position on the S-curve for different global markets. For example, Africa and the Middle East still have a long way to go to reach the turning point of growth. But there are two main markets that will align with Wood McKenzie's judgment of a slowdown in growth: the Asia Pacific region dominated by China and Europe. Wood McKenzie believes that even if there is no new global photovoltaic installation from 2024 to 2028, considering the high benchmark of 2023, it is still positive for energy transformation.

02 | China: The growth rate of photovoltaic installation demand in China will significantly slow down. Looking back at 23 years, as the world's largest demand market, China added 129 new photovoltaic installations in the first three quarters

GW, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 50%, achieved rapid growth. From the quarterly installation data, it can be seen that the proportion of centralized installation is gradually approaching that of distributed installation. At present, the rush for installation at the end of the year is still ongoing, and with the first batch of large-scale base projects completed and connected to the grid in Q4, centralized installation is expected to surpass distributed installation throughout the year 23. The growth rate of China's photovoltaic installation demand will significantly slow down in 24 years, with approximately 210 new installations added

GW increased by 11% year-on-year. From the perspective of subcategories, with the gradual deepening of China's electricity reform process, the expectation of a decrease in average electricity prices is clear, and the grid connected capacity allocated to household photovoltaics in multiple regions is approaching depletion. The decline in project economy and the tightening of grid connected management control may lead to a deep adjustment period of household photovoltaic installation demand in 24 years. Industrial and commercial photovoltaics are expected to maintain stable growth in the context of the continuous widening of peak valley electricity price differences and the gradual increase in distribution and storage ratios. In terms of centralization, the installation demand for the next two years will revolve around the wind and solar power base project.

03 | USA: Still facing a significant electricity shortage. In the first half of 2023, the US added 11.8 new photovoltaic installations

GW, a year-on-year increase of 37%. From the perspective of the two major sub categories, the demand for household photovoltaics will continue to grow until Q3 and gradually weaken from Q4 due to the positive impact of the NEM2.0 rush to install orders. In terms of large-scale storage, ground power stations have significantly improved due to supply chain issues, with a significant increase in component imports in the first half of 2023 (mainly in Japan and Southeast Asia), supporting the repair of installed capacity demand. Due to the inability of the construction speed of power grid infrastructure to keep up with the growth of electricity consumption, the United States will still face a significant electricity shortage in the future. Therefore, under the expectation of high electricity demand, the United States has a rigid demand for photovoltaic installation. It is expected that the overall growth rate of the US photovoltaic market will continue to be high in 24 years, with an expected increase of 55% in new installed capacity

GW, with a year-on-year increase of 45%. In addition, the Southeast Asian tariff exemption period that ends in June 2024 will provide effective support for the supply of components to the United States. Coupled with the gradual simplification and clarification of ITC's eligibility and process for additional subsidies, it is expected to drive a high increase in photovoltaic installation in the United States in 2024.

04 Jingtai Viewpoint | Global Photovoltaics are beginning to return to rational growth. From the present and future perspectives, photovoltaics is still a technology iteration driven industry: the technology cycle determines the industry cycle, including the expansion cycle of photovoltaic enterprises. With the sharp drop in silicon material prices at the beginning of the year, veteran players who had been deeply involved in the photovoltaic industry for many years and had complete technology and advanced manufacturing processes cannot escape the fate of performance pressure. However, new players who lack in these areas will face great risks if they persist in entering regardless of industry risks. In 2024, with the development of the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to avoid price fluctuations in the industry chain in the short term, and the industry is accelerating its reshuffle. According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, the total installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power in China will be around 200 million kilowatts in 2024, which is a 25% increase from the target for 2023. However, the growth rate has slowed down, and at that time, the market may further concentrate on top enterprises. Overall, the growth rate of new photovoltaic installations worldwide has slowed down in the past 24 years, returning to rational growth. At present, the insufficient capacity of the power grid and the problem of wind and solar energy consumption have become a major key factor restricting the high demand for photovoltaics in various countries. It is necessary to wait for the phased upgrade of the power grid or the release of energy storage capacity before the global potential for photovoltaic installation can be further unleashed. In addition, some regions are facing an economic downturn with limited fiscal spending, which may affect the implementation of subsidy policies and thus suppress the release of local installed capacity demand. In the process of moving down the profit center of the industrial chain and tightening the financing environment, it can be seen that the expansion of some links has significantly slowed down. In 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain will enter the integration stage, and the market share of the top is expected to increase.