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What investment opportunities are there for the acceleration of grid intelligence?
Time:2023-06-17

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With the rapid recovery of China's economy, the electric power data, as a "barometer" and "Weather vane" reflecting the economic operation, has continuously released positive signals. According to data on overall social electricity consumption in April released by the National Energy Administration, the total electricity consumption in society was 690.1 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year; From January to April, the total electricity consumption in society reached 2810.3 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The smart grid is a powerful guarantee for the efficient, safe and stable operation of the grid. The proportion of new energy power generation continues to increase, and the accelerated access of new loads such as Charging station has brought about the demand for smart upgrading of the grid in all aspects. In recent years, the investment proportion of smart grid investment in the power grid has been increasing year by year.


01 | Why do we need intelligent power grids? The core reason is to better match the new power system (increasing the proportion of wind and solar power generation and increasing load diversity).


The proportion of new energy generation has increased, and the integration of new loads has accelerated. There is a demand for smart grids in all aspects of power generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption. In the process of power grid construction in China, the development of Electric power transmission is leading in the world, and the world's largest power system has been built. However, with the continuous increase in the installed capacity of new energy generation and energy storage on the power generation side, and the accelerated integration of new loads on the power consumption side, it is difficult for traditional power grids to achieve good power generation


The demand for electricity access, scheduling and trading at the power transmission and distribution ends, and the demand for intelligent decision-making and visualization at the power consumption end. In the new context, the demand for intelligence in China's power grid is mainly reflected in:


1) Power generation end access demand - transmitting wind and solar data, suppressing fluctuations in power generation and consumption by predicting output and load: relying on power communication technology to transmit wind and solar data in a timely manner


According to, and predict the output, weather, and load of new energy, in order to suppress the volatility of new energy power generation and load.


2) Dispatching and trading requirements at the transmission and distribution end - control and regulation of multiple power transmission systems within the network, construction of an electricity demand side management platform outside the network, and encouragement of user participation in demand side response. Network master


To achieve control and regulation of multiple power transmission systems through intelligent means such as information disclosure, grid coordination, unit scheduling, and data management, and complete the overall macro regulation of the power system; Off network


We can strengthen the construction of power demand side management platforms and encourage users to participate in demand side response.


3) Intelligent decision-making and visualization requirements for electricity consumption - Integrating power grid resources at all levels, improving data processing and intelligent decision-making capabilities: Building an integrated information and communication system using information and communication technology,


Integrate power grid resources at all levels, enhance the ability to process and analyze diverse data and intelligent decision-making, and achieve personalized information disclosure effects.


02 | Policy side: Key tasks for the next stage of energy system development, Secretary of the Party Group and Chairman of State Grid Corporation of China, Xin Bao'an, also emphasized that during the 14th Five Year Plan period


Ultra high voltage and digitalization of the power grid will be the focus of work promotion. According to the 14th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the China and the Vision for 2035 issued in 2021


The Outline states that building a modern energy system has become the primary task for China's next stage of energy development, which clearly proposes to accelerate the intelligent transformation of power grid infrastructure and the construction of smart microgrids


Policies related to the promotion of smart grids, such as the complementary and intelligent regulation capabilities of high power systems, strengthening the connection between source grid load storage, and improving the consumption and storage capacity of clean energy.


03 | Investment trend: The investment proportion has increased from 6.2% to 12.5%, and the proportion of State Grid's intelligent investment has increased from 6.2% in 2009-10 to 12.5% in 16-20, with the fastest growth in the distribution sector. According to the National Grid Intelligence Planning General Report


From a phased perspective, the proportion of smart grid investment in the total investment of the power grid has gradually increased, accounting for 6.19%, 11.67%, and 12.50% in 2009-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, respectively. The investment in the distribution sector continues to increase, with the three stages accounting for 16.41%, 21.74%, and 26.04% of the intelligent investment, respectively. Calculated proportionally, the corresponding estimated investment in smart grid from 23 to 25 years is 373.3 billion yuan. Assuming that the proportions of 23, 24, and 25 years are 30%, 33.5%, and 36.5%, respectively, the corresponding investment in China's smart grid from 23 to 25 years is expected to be 1120, 1251, and 136.3 billion yuan, with yoy+14.4%/+11.7%/+9.0%. Among them, it is expected that the power generation end will be connected, the transmission and distribution end will be scheduled and traded, and the


The growth rate of investment in intelligent decision-making and visualization related to electricity (typically power communication technology) is expected to exceed the overall growth rate.


04 | Jingtai Investment Suggestion: From the perspective of external investment elasticity higher than internal electricity prices, the peak valley price difference of industrial and commercial electricity prices in the past 23 years is showing a widening trend, and it is expected that the total electricity purchase expenditure of relevant industrial and commercial groups will increase. The overall upward trend of electricity price expenditure is expected to stimulate industrial and commercial groups to invest in distributed energy demand on their own, corresponding to related off grid intelligent technologies - intelligent electricity services


The enterprise's micro grid can effectively improve users' distributed energy and Power usage effectiveness, and the corresponding demand is expected to increase. In the construction and development process of new energy for users, the source network load storage is mostly independent


The lack of unified management and collaboration in construction has resulted in low energy efficiency and high energy consumption costs.


1) Suwen Electric's intelligent electricity service product "Dianergxia Cloud Platform" uses digital technology to


Establishing a load forecasting model is expected to improve the efficiency of new energy utilization for industrial and commercial groups and reduce energy costs for enterprises;


2) Ankeri's microgrid system can dispatch and manage enterprise microgrids


Rationalize, optimize power consumption strategies, and reduce enterprise costs; Realize comprehensive automation of substations; Provide energy efficiency management for enterprises, improve energy efficiency, and reduce losses.


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