Last week, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan officially announced an amendment to the Foreign Exchange Law, which includes 23 categories of semiconductor equipment required for advanced chip manufacturing as export control objects. The amendment was officially disclosed on March 31 of this year and was finally finalized on May 23 after more than a month of soliciting opinions, and will be officially implemented on July 23. The officially announced export control policies are basically consistent with the previous version. The newly added export control equipment categories include: 3 cleaning equipment, 11 thin film deposition equipment, 1 heat treatment equipment, 4 photolithography equipment, 3 etching equipment, and 1 testing equipment. It is reported that this measure involves 23 types, including cleaning, film forming, heat treatment, exposure, etching, and inspection, including manufacturing equipment for extremely ultraviolet (EUV) related products and etching equipment for three-dimensional stacked storage components. In terms of the performance of computational logic semiconductors, they are essential equipment for manufacturing cutting-edge products with circuit line widths ranging from 10 nanometers to 14 nanometers or less.
01 | Control measures cover key materials and equipment according to VLSI
A data from Research (which should be from 2020) shows that the entire semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is mainly occupied by three countries: the United States (41.7%), Japan (31.1%), and the Netherlands (18.8%). Among them, the United States has great advantages in etching and cleaning equipment, film deposition equipment, CMP equipment, process control equipment, testing equipment and other fields; Japan has certain advantages in the fields of lithography equipment, etching equipment, scoring equipment, testing equipment, etc; The Netherlands has a significant advantage in the field of lithography equipment.
1. The Stepper is the core equipment of the lithography step, and also the semiconductor equipment with the greatest technical difficulty and the highest unit price. In the global lithography equipment market, the top three manufacturers in the world are currently ASML from the Netherlands, Nikon from Japan, and Canon, which account for about 99% of the market. Among them, ASML alone accounts for about 90% of the market and monopolizes EUV lithography equipment.
2. Etching equipment is in the global etching equipment market, with Lam Research of the United States, Tokyo Electronics of Japan and Applied Materials of the United States occupying the leading position. Data shows that in 2020, Lam Research (46.71%), Tokyo Electronics (26.57%) and Applied Materials (16.96%) together accounted for more than 90% of the global etcher market share. 3. Film deposition equipment is mainly occupied by Applied Materials, Lam Research and Tokyo Electronics in the global film deposition equipment market. There are also companies in China that are doing it, but both their technical level and market share are severely lagging behind Japan. 4. Semiconductor cleaning equipment is mainly monopolized by manufacturers from Japan, the United States, and South Korea in the global semiconductor cleaning equipment market, with manufacturers from these three countries accounting for over 80% of the market. Among them, Japanese manufacturer Screen
Semiconductor Solutions is in a leading position, accounting for approximately 50% of the market share. There are similar enterprises in China, but the proportion is relatively low. In the entire semiconductor field, the global market share of foreign manufacturers is basically over 80%, and some even account for over 90%. Actually, strength is not something that novice domestic enterprises can replace in the short term.
02 | The impact on the domestic Semiconductor industry is really great First, Japan is one of the important countries in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing field, and they have competitive advantages in etching equipment, scribing equipment and testing equipment. This means that Japan's regulatory measures will directly affect the stability of China's Semiconductor industry chain and the security of the supply chain.
1. Stepper, the process level of Shanghai Microelectronics Stepper has broken through to the 90nm stage, and some technologies of the 28nm Stepper have been verified. I believe that integrated manufacturing will not be too far away.
2. The most advanced level of etching machines in China has reached 5 nanometers, and the technology of etching machines below 5 nanometers has also achieved breakthroughs. At present, the market share of domestic etching machines is relatively small. With Japan and the United States prohibiting the export of these advanced equipment to China, it will bring more market opportunities to domestic enterprises.
3. There are various types of sedimentation equipment, including PVD equipment, CVD equipment, ECD equipment, ALD equipment, and so on. Northern Huachuang, Shanghai Zhongwei, and Tuojing Technology are all capable of producing relevant sedimentation equipment in China.
4. Cleaning equipment, some domestic manufacturers can produce cleaning equipment for 8-12 inch wafers. If Japan restricts the export of these equipment to China, domestic related enterprises can replace them.
5. Testing equipment, there are relevant enterprises in China that can produce some low-end equipment, including Zhongke Feice, Shanghai Jingce, and other enterprises. Domestic related enterprises can replace some markets. Secondly, Japan's regulatory measures may also draw attention from other countries to Japan's semiconductor products. Some countries may begin to reassess the risks of relying on Japanese semiconductor equipment and look for alternative solutions. This may lead to changes in the semiconductor equipment market pattern, providing development opportunities for enterprises in other countries. In addition, this event also aroused people's attention to the global Semiconductor industry supply chain. The development of the Semiconductor industry is inseparable from global cooperation and sharing. Any change in one link may have a chain reaction on the entire supply chain. Therefore, the impact of Japan's regulatory measures is not limited to the bilateral relations between China and Japan, but may affect the global Semiconductor industry chain.
03 | Jingtai's view is that 23 kinds of semiconductor materials and equipment restricted by Japan this time include a variety of key materials, such as polyimide and high-purity nitrogen. These are key materials that we particularly need for the research and development of semiconductors. The Chinese industry has submitted comments to the Japanese government, and multiple industry associations have publicly issued statements opposing Japan's measures. Some Japanese industry groups and enterprises have also expressed concerns about future uncertainty in various ways.
However, it is regrettable that the measures announced by the Japanese side do not respond to the reasonable demands of the industry, which will seriously damage the interests of Chinese and Japanese enterprises, seriously damage the Sino Japanese economic and trade cooperation, destroy the global Semiconductor industry pattern, and impact the safety and stability of the Supply chain security of the industrial chain. Restriction is a double-edged sword. While restricting the export of high-tech products to China, it also loses the huge market of Chinese Mainland. For the Chinese chip industry, it is also a double-edged sword. If China continues to catch up and develops its own advanced equipment in a few years, it will be the spring of China's chip industry. On the contrary, being stuck in the neck from now on will be a cold winter for China's chip industry.
