Recently, the development of the hydrogen energy industry has stepped into the spotlight, causing widespread concern. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). As my country's first medium and long-term plan for the hydrogen energy industry, the "Plan" makes top-level designs and active deployments for the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
With the further improvement of the hydrogen energy policy and the determination of more pragmatic development goals, it will help the rapid rise of my country's hydrogen energy industry. Jingtai took everyone to interpret the specific details of the plan.
▎Interpretation 1: 50,000 fuel cell vehicles
The "Plan" clarifies that the development goals during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are: the number of fuel cell vehicles is about 50,000, the hydrogen production from renewable energy reaches 100,000-200,000 tons/year, and the carbon dioxide emission reduction is 1-2 million tons/year. year.
In the development plan of the hydrogen energy industry, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is still regarded as one of the most important target directions, and the goal of increasing the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to 50,000 in four years is pragmatic, but it is also pragmatic. my country's hydrogen energy industry is also a major breakthrough.
By the end of 2021, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the world has reached 49,000, with South Korea and the United States accounting for the first or second place, while my country ranks third with more than 8,500 vehicles. The compound growth rate CAGR of annual hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales needs to reach 55.7%.
From the national hydrogen fuel cell vehicle production and sales data in 2021, there are 1,777 and 1,586 vehicles respectively, an increase of only 48.2% and 34.7% year-on-year, which is still far from the target value. There is no small breakthrough in the industrial area.
However, this trend has changed since 2022. With the approval of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhangjiakou and Zhengzhou as demonstration city clusters by the end of 2021, the promotion volume of their respective cities is also given (each has 10,000). At present, the leading cities have indeed promoted the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. From January to February, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles completed 356 and 371 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 500% and 310%. If the high growth trend can be maintained throughout the year, the target of 50,000 vehicles can indeed be achieved.
▎Interpretation 2: Hydrogen production from renewable energy is a 0 to 1 construction
The "Planning" points out that by 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and hydrogen production from renewable energy will be formed.
my country is the world's largest hydrogen producer, with an annual hydrogen production output of 33 million tons, reaching the industrial hydrogen quality standard of about 12 million tons. Among the hydrogen production methods, the production of hydrogen from fossil fuels oil, natural gas and coal occupies the mainstream and the bulk. , the proportion of hydrogen production from water electrolysis is quite low, accounting for less than 2%, and the sources of electricity in the water electrolysis method are not all renewable energy sources, which do not meet the planned requirements for hydrogen production from renewable sources. The amount of hydrogen produced from energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power generation is very small.
Therefore, the goal of hydrogen production from renewable energy reaching 100,000-200,000 tons/year is basically a construction from 0 to 1, but it is the cornerstone of the entire hydrogen energy industry.
Regardless of the downstream applications of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen energy storage, etc., green hydrogen is needed to truly achieve the reasonable requirements of carbon emission reduction . Fortunately, new energy companies have already begun to deploy.
Previously, leading companies in the photovoltaic industry, such as LONGi and Sungrow, have begun to enter the field of photovoltaic hydrogen production and carry out the layout of hydrogen energy industrialization. With their own industry status and volume, they can not only stimulate the rise of renewable energy hydrogen production, but also further Increase the installed capacity of photovoltaics.
At present, the global hydrogen demand is about 60 million tons per year. If it is all produced by photovoltaic power generation, it will require more than 1500 GW of photovoltaics, while my country's annual installed capacity is less than 60 GWh, and it can also reduce the abandonment of wind and light, etc. Appear.
▎Interpretation 3: "Green hydrogen" is the direction in the production process, and "Blue hydrogen" is the main force
The "Plan" points out that by 2030, a relatively complete hydrogen energy industry technology innovation system, clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed.
According to the source of hydrogen energy production and the emission in the production process, hydrogen energy can be divided into gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen and green hydrogen. The source of hydrogen will gradually shift from grey hydrogen (hydrogen produced from fossil energy) and blue hydrogen (hydrogen produced by industrial by-product) to green hydrogen (hydrogen produced from renewable energy).
Due to the close relationship between hydrogen energy and the traditional oil industry chain, oil companies have actively promoted the research and development and promotion of hydrogen energy technology in recent years. On November 13, 2021, the preliminary design of the Zhangjiakou 200/800 MWh hydrogen energy storage power generation project participated by PetroChina passed the review, marking a substantial step forward in the application of large-scale energy storage and peak regulation in my country. The project is expected to be fully operational in 2023 and is currently the world's largest hydrogen energy storage power generation project.
In the long run, green hydrogen is the direction, and blue hydrogen mainly reflects the comprehensive utilization of resources, and it is not encouraged to take the route of hydrogen production from fossil energy; for areas with developed by-product hydrogen, hydrogen energy applications can be developed according to local conditions.
▎Interpretation 4: Strengthening international cooperation in the hydrogen energy industry
The "Plan" emphasizes that international joint research and development of hydrogen energy science and technology is encouraged, and innovation and cooperation in key core technologies, materials and equipment of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain are promoted, and an international hydrogen energy innovation chain and industrial chain are actively built.
The formation of a unified system for fuel cell application, power generation system design, construction and acceptance standards is conducive to the integration and cooperation of the international hydrogen energy industry in terms of technology and products, and at the same time, it can also accelerate the application of scenarios and products in the new development pattern of "dual cycle". Advantage.
Relying on relatively uniform standards, hydrogen energy equipment will be able to be sold to different countries and quickly reach commercialization. But in general, hydrogen energy standardization has achieved good results in the field of fuel cell vehicles.
Fully participating in global cooperation and competition can enable domestic brands to accept the market test more quickly, and at the same time, product development can be in line with international standards and further enhance the competitiveness of products.
China Hydrogen Energy Alliance once predicted that by 2025, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan; by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for more than 10% of China's terminal energy system, and the annual output value of the industrial chain will reach 12 trillion yuan Yuan.
