The gold market is undergoing a ruthless reshaping of logic.
JPMorgan's latest research report reveals a harsh reality: the pricing power for gold has returned to the Federal Reserve. As buying power in other demand sectors cooled across the board, the highly rate-sensitive gold ETF flows regained marginal pricing power, and the negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates made a strong comeback after years of stagnation.
In recent years, gold has emerged as an independent rally by ignoring rate hikes, driven by the central bank's aggressive buying and risk-averse sentiment. But now the tide has turned: the central bank and retail investors are watching from the sidelines, and gold has returned to being the asset that "depends on the Fed's mood."
JPMorgan directly cut its gold price forecast for the second half of the year by more than 20%, warning that if the Fed dares to raise rates early this summer, gold prices could fall below $4,000 at any time and plunge into the $3,500 abyss.
| ETF funds regain control: gold is once again "manipulated" by real interest rates
To understand the current gold market, we first need to review history. Before 2022, gold prices and US real interest rates were a pair of "seesaws"—once real interest rates rose, holding interest-free gold became unprofitable, and people would sell gold. This simple rule has dominated the market for over a decade.
But by 2022, this pattern was broken. At that time, although the Federal Reserve was aggressively raising rates, global central banks suddenly began buying large amounts of gold. This kind of "national team" level buying has forcibly freed gold from the constraints of real interest rates. Later, as concerns grew over currency depreciation, retail investors and Asian capital poured in, pushing gold prices to historic highs.
However, starting from March 2026, the trend shifted again. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and the tough stance of new Federal Reserve Chairman Wash, other "buyers" of gold have stepped on the brakes:
India: To protect foreign exchange, the government tightened gold imports, causing a sharp drop in physical demand. China: Domestic gold premiums are sluggish, and public enthusiasm for buying gold is cooling down. Central Bank: Although still buying, actions have clearly become more cautious. Retail investors: Seeing the Fed firmly fighting inflation, they thought the currency depreciation speculation was hopeless, so they turned to speculating on AI chips.
Once these buyers have "shut down," ETF capital flows—most sensitive to interest rates—become the only active force in the market. Since the end of February, about 128 tons of global gold ETFs have flowed out, which perfectly aligns with the historical pattern of rising real interest rates in the United States.
Even more astonishing, gold is now more sensitive to real interest rates than before 2022. Every slight increase in real interest rates causes gold prices to plummet.
JPMorgan believes that this "oversensitivity" actually points to one issue: the current support in the gold market is too weak. It is precisely because other buyers are not present that even the slightest fluctuation in real interest rates is magnified infinitely, causing sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
｜警惕美联储提前加息的“戴维斯双杀”
摩根大通的基准预测是美联储今年保持耐心，但市场显然已经“抢跑”——OIS远期市场几乎完全定价了年内一次加息。这种持续上倾的收益率曲线，就像一顶沉重的帽子，死死压住了ETF持仓的回升空间。
报告明确指出，短期的风险天平严重向下倾斜。如果夏季美国经济数据持续火热，迫使美联储提前加息，金价大概率会有效跌破4000美元/盎司的关口，并触发技术性抛售，下探至3500至3600美元区间。
此外，若AI带来的生产力分化进一步强化“美国例外论”，强势美元也将对以美元计价的黄金形成额外压制。
｜短期风险需警惕，长期看涨逻辑未变
关于黄金未来的走势，摩根大通给出了一个非常清晰的判断：短期内风险偏向下行，但长期来看，黄金依然值得看好。
短期来看，有两大“拦路虎”需要警惕：
美联储可能提前加息：如果美国经济数据持续火热，迫使美联储提前加息（就像1999年那样），金价大概率会跌破4000美元/盎司的关口，甚至可能引发抛售，一路下探到3500至3600美元区间。
美元可能意外走强：如果AI技术进一步拉大美国与其他国家的经济差距，美元可能会变得更加强势。对于以美元计价的黄金来说，这绝对是一个沉重的打击。
However, JPMorgan has not abandoned its long-term bullish stance on gold.
They believe that the previously hyped "currency devaluation" logic has not disappeared, but has only been temporarily masked by the Federal Reserve's tough stance. Two major "stabilizing anchors" supporting gold's long-term rise still remain:
Central banks are still buying: Although they have been cautiously buying, central banks worldwide (including China) continue to accumulate gold. Physical demand will return: Once India's import restrictions are lifted or the Asian market recovers, previously suppressed gold demand will explode in concentration.
What will happen to gold prices in the future?
JPMorgan predicts that as long as the Fed can "dovish" again (sending signals of rate cuts or easing), and with these two forces regaining momentum, gold prices will rise quarter by quarter in 2027, ultimately reaching $5,000 per ounce in Q4, with an annual average price of about $4,775 per ounce.
| Silver bids farewell to "shortage," platinum and palladium await gold to stabilize
The fundamentals of silver are undergoing profound changes. Last year, extreme tightness in the physical market caused silver to outperform gold by a wide margin; But this year, the logic has reversed.
JPMorgan predicts that as the photovoltaic industry accelerates its search for alternative materials, demand for silver for solar panels will plummet by about 30% by 2026. This means that after five consecutive years of supply shortages, the silver market will balance out this year, and may even experience a slight surplus in 2027.
The shift in supply and demand has also changed the temperament of silver: before, "when gold rises, silver rises even more"; Now it has become "gold falls, silver falls even harder." Based on this, JPMorgan forecasts silver prices to fluctuate between $62 and $65 per ounce, with an annual average price of about $70.6 in 2026 and a decline to about $63.9 in 2027.
Platinum and palladium have also recently been hit by large-scale ETF sell-offs, with prices falling along with gold.
Platinum: The current price of about $1,600 per ounce is close to the "bottom line." If prices fall further, South African miners will halt operations at a loss, leading to even more severe supply shortages. JPMorgan expects that as gold stabilizes in the second half of the year, the average price of platinum could rise to $1,800 by year-end and further rise to $1,950 by the end of 2027.
Palladium: As the popularity of electric vehicles is rapidly replacing palladium demand, the market faces the risk of oversupply. JPMorgan expects palladium to rebound to $1,350 by year-end, but its upside potential in 2027 is limited, with the annual average price expected to remain around $1,300.
Kingtai's Perspective | Avoid sharp moments in the short term, wait for a turning point in the long term
Gold's short-term performance will heavily depend on Federal Reserve policy signals and the direction of real interest rates. Until rate cut expectations are reestablished, gold is likely to remain weak and volatile, seeking support at the bottom.
For short-term investors, it is not advisable to blindly "catch a flying knife" at this time. It is recommended to closely monitor U.S. inflation data and the Fed's policy meeting, and wait for rate hike expectations to cool or gold prices stabilize in the $3,500-4,000 range before making any moves.
For investors looking to the long term, the current sharp drop actually provides a window to buy on dips. The global de-dollarization process and the underlying logic of central banks' long-term gold purchases remain unshaken. It is recommended to gradually build a base position by investing in batches after gold prices fully release risk.
