After the original storage manufacturers delivered explosive earnings one after another, the first half-year report forecast for the storage industry on the A-share market arrived as scheduled.

Jiangbolong (301308. SZ) released its 2026 semi-annual performance forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.2 to 11 billion yuan, compared to only 14.7663 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 62,204% to 74,394%. Net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 9 billion and 10.5 billion yuan, and operating revenue will be between 22 billion and 25 billion yuan (compared to 10.196 billion yuan in the same period last year).

Jiang Bolong's net profit in the first half of the year saw a year-on-year increase of over 600 times, which was truly remarkable, but this was closely related to its extremely low profit base in the first half of last year—the company still lost 152 million yuan in the first quarter, and the net profit for the entire half was only 14.7663 million yuan. However, in absolute terms, the value of this forecast is equally astonishing: the net profit ceiling for the first half of the year is 11 billion yuan, nearly eight times the company's full-year net profit of 1.423 billion yuan in 2025.

|Jiangbolong rebounded against the trend, with second-quarter performance accelerating its explosive growth

Just the day before, amid Meta's announcement to enter cloud computing and sparking concerns over overheated AI investment, the A-share tech sector plunged across the board, with Jiangbolong also dropping more than 10% in a single day. But today, Jiangbolong quickly stabilized and rebounded, opening lower and then fluctuating higher, ultimately closing up 3.14% at 618.02 yuan, with a total market value of 261.5 billion yuan.

比股价更亮眼的是业绩的加速。根据一季度38.62亿元的净利润推算，江波龙二季度单季净利润预计在53.38亿元至71.38亿元之间，环比大增38%至84%。这意味着，公司一季度的爆发并非昙花一现，二季度还在继续加速。

江波龙将业绩暴增归功于两大“护身符”：

行业高景气：下游需求旺盛，但全球存储晶圆产能增长有限，供需错配推高了行业景气度。

供应链有保障：公司与多家全球主要原厂续签了2至3年的长期供货协议（LTA）或谅解备忘录（MOU）。在产能紧缺的当下，长约就是“入场券”——原厂借此锁定出货，江波龙则借此确保能拿到货。作为全球第二大、国内第一大独立存储器厂商，江波龙在这场产能争夺战中占据了明显的规模优势。

| Long-term contracts lock in capacity, expectations for price increases in the second half continue

In the current extremely tight storage market, "long-term supply agreements (long-term contracts)" have become the key to determining the survival and development of enterprises.

Currently, global storage manufacturers are generally implementing 2 to 3 year floating price contracts to lock in long-term orders. For the original manufacturer, this ensures the certainty of shipment; For downstream module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, long-term contracts act as an "entry ticket," ensuring stable supply even during tight production capacity. As the world's second-largest and China's largest independent memory manufacturer, Jiangbolong leverages its scale advantage to secure a favorable position in this competition for production capacity.

Supported by long-term contracts, the high prosperity in the storage industry supporting Jiangbolong's explosive performance is expected to continue in the second half of this year. According to industry forecasts, various storage product categories will see varying degrees of price increases in the second half of the year. For example, LPDDR (Low Power Memory) is expected to see about a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3; On the consumer side, taking PCIe 4.0 1TB SSDs as an example, Q3 is expected to rise 23.3% quarter-on-quarter, and Q4 by 17.6%.

Besides favorable external conditions, Jiangbolong's technological breakthroughs have also built a solid moat for him. The company disclosed in its announcement that its self-developed SPU main controller chip and HLC (Advanced Cache) software architecture are continuously being implemented. Through joint optimization with AMD, Jiangbolong leveraged SSD storage agents and HLC technology to successfully achieve a technological innovation reducing DRAM (memory) usage by about 40% in on-device AI products.

This breakthrough not only significantly reduces hardware costs for terminal devices but also gives the company greater bargaining power and competitive advantage in the on-device AI storage sector.

| Hidden Concerns Behind High Profits: Billions in Inventory, High Debt, and Executive Reductions

Behind the stellar performance explosion, Jiang Bolong's balance sheet is under tremendous pressure, mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

1. Frenzied hoarding, continuous cash flow "bleeding"

By the end of the first quarter this year, Jiangbolong's inventory had soared to 17.96 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the company's total assets. This is the result of the company's large-scale "counter-cyclical" stockpiling during the industry's downturn. Although it made high profits after price increases, it also tied up massive funds. This has led to the company's operating cash flow being negative for five consecutive years, with a net outflow of as much as 2.875 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.

2. Borrowing frantically, with asset-liability ratios rising

To maintain a stock scale worth tens of billions, Jiang Bolong had to continuously expand its borrowing. By the end of the first quarter, its long-term loans had surged 115% to 9.431 billion yuan, and its asset-liability ratio climbed to 65.55%. To fill the funding gap and support high-end R&D, the company is currently simultaneously advancing its Hong Kong listing and a 3.7 billion yuan A-share private placement plan.

3. Intensive cash-out by executives and shareholders

While the company is raising funds aggressively, insiders are selling on rallies. Between May and June this year, director Li Zhixiong cashed out his share reduction, lowering his stake to 3.90%; Deputy General Manager Zhu Yu also announced a new round of share reduction plans.

Kingtech Perspective | The "Paper Wealth" and "Real Money" at the Top of the Cycle

Jiang Bolong's performance confirms the strong impact of the AI computing power explosion on the storage industry. Against the backdrop of original factory capacity shifting toward high-end platforms like HBM, structural shortages in consumer-grade and on-device AI storage will continue in the second half of the year. However, it is important to be cautious that as the gains narrow, the industry's period of excessive profits is transitioning to a stable phase.

Beware of the cyclical backlash risk of "high inventory + negative cash flow."

Jiangbolong's current 10 billion yuan profit is essentially the "floating profit realization" of previous low-price stockpiling during the price increase cycle. With operating cash flow consistently negative and inventory accounting for 50% of total assets, the company's profits heavily depend on the continued strength of storage prices. If new original factory capacity is released in the second half of the year or next year, causing a price inflection point, huge inventories will face impairment risks.

Pay attention to the signaling significance of "executive share reduction" and "high-level financing."

During peak performance, executives cashing out intensively and the company urgently pushing for A+H dual-channel financing are typical "peak-of-the-mountain characteristics" of cyclical stocks. Management's hunger for cash and secure moves indicate that investors' current stock prices have fully or even excessively drawn into future economic expectations.