The global crude oil supply buffer is rapidly depleting.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the three oil giants, ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, have recently issued a stern warning: the world's crude oil stocks (including in warehouses, national reserves and in offshore tankers) are being rapidly depleted, leaving little "buffer" left for the market.

As a result, the cost of refueling is getting higher and higher, and supply chain tensions are spreading to the manufacturing industry, and many factories are feeling the pressure.

Experts remind: The most violent shock wave of this energy crisis may be yet to come, and what the market is currently feeling may be only the "tip of the iceberg".

Global inventories are in a hurry, and the rise in oil prices is just the beginning

ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are several major oil giants that have spoken out one after another this week and issued stern warnings. They said that for every additional day of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the consumption of crude oil in global reserves accelerated by one day.

Chevron's financial director bluntly said in an interview that there is currently little "buffer inventory" left that can be used for emergencies. He specifically reminded that this supply disruption is unprecedented, and the pressure currently felt by the market is only the tip of the iceberg, and the real shock wave may be yet to come.

For the average American consumer, the crisis has been reflected directly in the wallet – the price of a gallon of gas has now risen by an average of about $1.40.

Jay Singh, head of U.S. oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, said: "The United States is isolated, but not isolated, between the United States and the energy crisis that is sweeping the world. "As inventories continue to be depleted and export capacity peaks, how long this wall can last is becoming the most pressing question in the global energy market.

As inventories bottom out, greater price pressure is accumulating, and this inflation may spread further in the future, causing the prices of more downstream commodities to rise.

Asia rushed to buy U.S. crude oil, but energy giants did not dare to increase production

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has completely changed the global crude oil buying and selling landscape. A large number of oil tankers are departing from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, loaded with crude oil to Japan, Thailand and Australia, and the United States has become the "last resort" of global energy consumers.

This change is most pronounced in Asia. In the past, about 90% of Japan's crude oil came from the Middle East and almost did not buy American oil. But now, Japanese refiners have snapped up at least 8 million barrels of U.S. crude oil that will not arrive until August in the past few days alone. Refineries in Singapore and South Korea are also significantly increasing purchases, especially South Korea, which has been the second largest buyer of U.S. crude oil, and demand remains very strong.

However, while the export data looks impressive, industry insiders are beginning to worry about how long this situation can last. Traders pointed out that export equipment and shipping capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast are running out.

Theoretically, the peak exports of the United States can reach 10 million barrels per day, but in reality, the export ceiling that can be maintained for a long time is only about 6 million barrels per day, and even if it is desperately sprinted in the short term, it will be close to 7 million barrels at most. This is mainly due to the current tight supply of ships and the extremely high cost of transferring crude oil from one ship to another at sea (sea bargeing), which severely limits the amount of oil that can actually be shipped.

At the same time, since the outbreak of the Iran War, domestic crude oil production in the United States has fallen by about 100,000 barrels per day. In the face of soaring oil prices, drillers generally stood still and did not dare to increase production easily.

The main reason is that the current market trend is too difficult to predict, and a survey report by the Dallas Fed shows that some energy executives bluntly said: "The current government policy is too unpredictable, so we can't do business planning at all." ”

Manufacturing is under pressure: soaring costs and slower deliveries

Despite the ongoing energy crisis, the U.S. manufacturing sector maintained its expansion momentum in April. The data shows that the manufacturing activity index is still in the growth range.

However, the pressure is accumulating. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted global supply chains, not only pushing up the prices of raw materials such as oil, aluminum, and helium, but also making logistics and transportation more expensive due to rising prices of gasoline and diesel.

In April, while 13 manufacturing segments (such as textiles, basic metals, etc.) reported growth, 3 sectors also contracted. At the same time, longer lead times and weaker employment indicators indicate that supply chain pressures are spreading to the broader economy.

Interestingly, there is a clear "contrast" between the pressure on the real economy and the performance of financial markets. In April, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit record highs, mainly supported by strong earnings reports and optimistic expectations from large tech stocks.

This contrast shows that the profitability of the technology sector has temporarily overshadowed everyone's concerns about the energy crisis. But as oil reserves dwindle, rising energy costs will sooner or later erode corporate profits and consumers' wallets, an impact that may be more clearly reflected in asset prices in the coming months.

Energy inflation is spreading downstream

The warnings of the three major oil giants are not alarmist, but based on rational judgment of extremely tight real markets. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz not only cut off crude oil supplies, but also disrupted the logistics rhythm of global energy.

High oil prices and supply chain pressures will be the norm until inventories bottom out. In the short term, technology stocks can still rely on performance; In the long run, the "gray rhino" of the energy crisis will hit the real economy sooner or later, and investors need to prepare for broader inflation and supply chain restructuring in advance.

Crude oil inventories are in a hurry to mean that high oil prices will remain high for longer. This cost pressure can be transmitted from gasoline and diesel to chemicals, agricultural products, and consumer goods, triggering broader inflation. Although the United States has become a "firefighting captain", its own export infrastructure and shipping bottlenecks have emerged. Once export capacity peaks, the global supply-demand imbalance will further exacerbate.

The tech boom has temporarily overshadowed the risk of an energy crisis, but this divergence will not last forever. Rising energy costs will eventually impact corporate earnings, and market styles may change.

Opportunity 1: Energy upstream and infrastructure
Against the backdrop of inventory shortages and supply disruptions, energy giants with stable production capacity, as well as port, shipping and pipeline infrastructure companies benefiting from the surge in exports, will usher in a revaluation of value.

Opportunity 2: Anti-inflation and supply chain optimization
As energy costs are transmitted downstream, consumer goods companies with strong pricing power, as well as technical service providers that can help the manufacturing industry optimize supply chains and reduce logistics costs, will become safe havens for funds.