Although the US-Iran negotiations have progressed, key differences still exist, and the outlook is still uncertain.

According to the latest news, the next round of face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume as soon as April 20. The U.S. lineup may include Vice President Vance and Presidential Special Envoy Witkov.

However, the smell of gunpowder on both sides has not dissipated. In the early morning of April 18, Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf directly hit back at Trump on social media, saying that he had issued seven statements in a row within an hour that were "all untrue."

Despite some progress in the negotiations, there is still a stalemate on core issues. Iran firmly opposes any agreement that requires it to move enriched uranium out of its borders. Kalibaf also stressed that Iran will never give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for global oil transportation.

The market reaction is obvious:

U.S. stocks rose sharply: all three major indexes rose more than 1%, and the Nasdaq rose for 13 consecutive days, hitting a record high; European stock markets rose across the board; International oil prices plummeted: WTI crude oil futures fell more than 11% in a single day, and Brent crude oil also fell more than 9%

Negotiations continue, but Iran is holding back on nuclear materials and strategic routes, while the market is "reveling" ahead of schedule in anticipation of easing.

The U.S.-Iran negotiations are sprinting, can the agreement be implemented?

The Trump administration is considering sending senior officials back to Pakistan to continue negotiating a long-term peace agreement with Iran. The U.S. delegation may include Vice President Vance and Presidential Special Envoy Witkov. However, as of the morning of the 17th Eastern Time, the specific negotiation time has not yet been finalized, indicating that the negotiations are still full of uncertainty.

But Trump himself is optimistic. In a telephone interview with Axios News on the 17th, he said: "Iran wants to meet and reach an agreement. I think it will be possible to talk this weekend, and it will be done in the next day or two." ”

He also said: until a formal agreement is reached, the naval blockade of Iran will not be lifted; but hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all countries (the strait is a global oil transportation route); the new agreement will "ensure Israel's security" and said that "Israel will reap great benefits after the war ends"; at the same time, Israel is required to stop air strikes immediately

Despite the "significant progress" made by the two sides, there are still differences on several key issues, such as: How long will Iran's suspension of uranium enrichment last? What about the existing enriched uranium stockpiles?

One option currently being discussed is that the United States will unfreeze about $20 billion of frozen Iranian overseas assets in exchange for Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium reserves.

Iran has made a tough statement: the Strait of Hormuz will never let go

On April 17, a number of senior Iranian officials spoke out intensively, clearly drawing a red line for negotiations: enriched uranium will never leave the country: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae stressed that it is "completely impossible" to transfer enriched uranium to the United States or any other country, and Iran will not accept any agreement containing such clauses

There is a consensus in the negotiations: he said that the first round of US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad, Pakistan has clarified the positions of both sides, and "there is no room for ambiguity now." As long as the final agreement protects the interests and rights of the Iranian people, an agreement is possible.

Compensation and sanctions must be lifted: Bagae pointed out that compensating Iran for losses suffered by the war is one of the key points of negotiations, and lifting US sanctions against Iran is a key prerequisite.

Warn the United States not to cross the line: He warned that if the United States continues to impose a naval blockade, it will be seen as a violation of the ceasefire agreement, and Iran will respond. He also stressed that under international law, Iran has the right to prevent enemy warships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz in wartime.

On the same day, Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf also stated on social media: the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran, which "the United States has recognized"; Iran will never give up control of the strait; He sarcastically said that Trump was "in a hurry to sign an agreement", which just shows that his "plan to bring down Iran has failed"; Although the United States has not yet taken military action at sea, Iran will never tolerate any provocations

In addition, Tabatabai, deputy director of press affairs of the Iranian Presidential Office, said: The recent limited opening of some waters of the Strait of Hormuz is a goodwill released by Iran; This is not only a sign of a responsible attitude, but also a test of whether the United States is trustworthy; if the other party is treacherous, "the consequences will be borne by yourself"

While talking, Iran also showed the bottom line - no nuclear materials, no straits, sanctions must be lifted, and losses must be compensated. Cooperation is possible, but sovereignty and dignity cannot be compromised.

European and American stock markets rose sharply, and oil prices plummeted

After Iran announced the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, global investor sentiment improved significantly, risk appetite rose, and European and American stock markets soared across the board.

U.S. stocks performed well:

The Dow rose 1.79%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.52%; The Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks, rose 2.11%, hitting a record high for two consecutive days; the Nasdaq has risen for 13 consecutive days, tying the record for the longest winning streak since 1992; the S&P 500 has risen 9% this month, the largest monthly gain since 2020

Technology stocks rose collectively:

Tesla rose more than 3%; Apple and Broadcom rose more than 2%; Nvidia, Google, TSMC (US stocks), and Meta all rose more than 1%; Microsoft and Amazon rose slightly

European stocks also rose across the board:

Germany's DAX index rose 2.27%; Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 2.11%; France's CAC 40 rose 1.97%; Italy's FTSE MIB rose 1.75%; Britain's FTSE 100 was relatively modest, up 0.73%

But oil prices have plunged sharply:

WTI crude oil plummeted 11.45% to close at $83.85 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 9.07% to $90.38 per barrel

What do market participants think?

Tom di Galoma, managing director of Mischler Financial, said: "The good news from the Persian Gulf and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are a relief for investors. Although the war is not completely over, there is enough reason to be optimistic. ”

Three types of opportunities, two types of risks

The game of geopolitics is never black and white. Both the United States and Iran are "playing Tai Chi": Iran uses the strait as a bargaining chip, and the United States trades sanctions for time

Investors should be sober: today's surge is based on discounts based on the "most optimistic assumptions". Once the negotiations collapse, the market may also "fall back to before liberation in one day"

Opportunity 1: Energy cost-sensitive sectors

Aviation, shipping, chemical, manufacturing: the sharp drop in oil prices directly reduces operating costs; new energy vehicles: Although the decline in fuel prices is negative for electric vehicles in the short term, the improvement in overall economic expectations is good for consumption

Opportunity 2: Revaluation of global risk assets

U.S. technology leaders: AI investment boom + geopolitical easing = valuation expansion; Emerging market assets: Funds have shifted from safe-haven to profit-seeking, benefiting Chinese stocks and Southeast Asian stock markets

Opportunity 3: Pay attention to the follow-up catalysts of negotiations

If there is a breakthrough in the negotiations on April 20 (such as reaching a temporary ceasefire or partially unfreezing assets), the market may face another wave of gains; focus on whether Iran allows international verification of enriched uranium stockpiles, which is the core demand of the United States

Risk 1: The agreement may break down again

There is still a fundamental conflict between the two sides, especially on the issue of nuclear capability reservation and sovereignty in the strait; If Trump "pushes the agreement" to build election momentum, it may trigger a backlash in Iran

Risk 2: The market is overly optimistic

The Nasdaq is already at a historical high, and there is technical pressure to pull back after 13 consecutive gains; If negotiations fail, oil prices may rebound quickly, triggering secondary fluctuations