According to the latest news, SK hynix, a major global memory chip manufacturer, said: Due to the full order of AI customers and the production capacity cannot keep up, the price of memory chips will continue to rise this year. What's even more exaggerated is that the company admitted: "No customer can get all the chips they want this year" - supply exceeds demand to the extreme.
Boosted by this, memory chip concept stocks collectively rose last week:
SK hynix's stock price soared more than 6%, hitting a record high;
Micron Technology rose more than 2%;
SanDisk (a subsidiary of Western Digital) rose more than 4%.
Previously, it was reported that Samsung Electronics is negotiating a price for a new generation of AI-specific memory chips, with a price of up to 30% higher than the previous generation!
Memory chips enter the "seller's market"
At a recent investor conference, global memory chip giant SK hynix sent a very clear signal: memory chip prices will rise all the way this year, and they won't sell enough at all!
Why is it so tight? AI demand explodes: large models and servers are frantically ordered; production capacity is stuck: clean room space is needed to build a new factory, but there is a shortage of it all over the world, and it is difficult to expand production physically; customers have also resigned themselves to their fate: knowing that it is useless to place more orders, but pushing up prices, can only accept reality
SK hynix directly told Goldman Sachs: "No customer can get all the chips they want this year."
Inventory is low to the warning line, server customer inventory has returned to a healthy level (no longer stockpiling); mobile phone and computer manufacturer inventory is still declining; SK hynix's own DRAM and NAND inventory is only about 4 weeks old, and will continue to decrease throughout the year
The most sought-after is HBM (AI dedicated memory), and HBM's production capacity in 2026 has been fully ordered!
The production plan has long been full, and even the production line cannot be adjusted - want to temporarily increase orders? Impossible. Standard DRAM is also extremely scarce (industry term called "S/D tight"), allowing SK hynix to firmly grasp the initiative in price negotiations
Because of this, the company is now negotiating multi-year long-term contracts with major customers to lock in future supply and prices. They even expect HBM contract terms to be more favorable in 2027 (i.e. more expensive and on better terms).
Investment is very restrained: money is only spent on the blade, although capital expenditure this year will be more than last year, but SK hynix emphasizes: never spend money indiscriminately. Focus on HBM and standard DRAM (the most profitable and in demand); NAND flash memory: only a small amount of investment (for upgrading to 321-layer technology), the overall proportion is controlled at more than 10%, and production is not blindly expanded.
Concept stocks collectively pulled
On February 20, global memory chip stocks rose sharply across the board:
U.S. stocks: SanDisk soared 4.65%, Micron Technology rose more than 2%; South Korea: SK hynix rose 6.15%, and its stock price hit a record high; Samsung Electronics also closed at an all-time high; Hong Kong stocks: Lanqi Technology rose more than 8% at one point, and GigaDevice rose nearly 4%.
Why is it rising? Because the "memory shortage" is intensifying!
The latest news shows that Samsung is negotiating the pricing of a new generation of AI memory chips (HBM4), which may be up to 30% higher than the previous generation! Saxo Bank strategists pointed out: This shows that memory chip manufacturers have regained control of "pricing power" - who has the goods has the final say
Market research firm TrendForce predicts that DRAM (memory) prices will soar by 90%–95% in the first quarter of 2026; NAND (flash memory) will also rise by 55%–60%.
AI giants also shouted "lack of memory", and Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said frankly: "The entire memory supply chain is stuck, and hardware bottlenecks are slowing down the large-scale deployment of AI."
Intel's new CEO Chen Liwu warned more directly: "The bottleneck of AI has shifted from 'computing power' to 'memory', and this problem will be difficult to solve until 2028."
The price of the price increase: cheap phones may be disappearing. Although chip factories such as Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have made a lot of money, downstream manufacturers are miserable. Bernstein analyst Mark Li warns that memory prices are soaring "parabola", while Counterpoint Research points out that the cost of memory is too high that could lead to the complete withdrawal of low-end smartphones from the market - because the cheaper they sell, the more they lose.
Seize the golden window of the "seller's market"
For secondary market investors:
Key layout of storage leaders: SK hynix (000660.KS), Micron (MU), Samsung (005930. KS) - volume and price are rising, and profit elasticity is extremely high; Pay attention to the domestic subsistence chain: Lanqi Technology (HBM interface chip), GigaDevice Innovation (niche DRAM), Beijing Junzheng (automotive storage); Avoid pure consumer electronics foundry/complete machine companies - weak cost transfer ability and gross profit margin under pressure.
Observation of the primary market/industry:
HBM supply chain (TSV packaging, CoWoS, silicon interposer) has become a strategic highland; If domestic storage plants can release production capacity in 2026-2027, they will get a historic window.
If AI capital expenditure slows down significantly in the second half of 2026, the pace of price increases may ease in stages, but given that the expansion cycle is as long as 18 months+, it is difficult to see a reversal of supply and demand before 2027.
