The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and A-shares have handed over a pre-holiday answer sheet of "steady progress": the three major indexes have stabilized across the board, the main line of science and technology has carried the flag, and the average daily turnover is still more than 2 trillion yuan - the funds have not run, but are waiting for the starting gun after the holiday.
Historical data is honest: in the past 10 years, in the 5 trading days after the Spring Festival, the probability of rising the SSE, Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indexes was as high as 70%; In 2024, it will rise by 4.85% in one go, the best in ten years.
Institutions generally shouted: "Hold shares for the holidays, don't step on the spring impatience".
| A-shares have a "Spring Festival market" rule, almost every year
The data from the past 10 years (2016–2025) is clear: the stock market tends to perform well after the Chinese New Year. In the first 5 trading days after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for 7 years; in 2024, it will rise by 4.85%, a new high in nearly 10 years; The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose 7 times.
Why is it easy to rise after the holiday?
Mainly because everyone was afraid of accidents in overseas markets during the long holiday before the holiday, coupled with the need to withdraw cash for the New Year, the willingness to trade decreased, and the market shrank; After the holiday, funds returned, sentiment picked up, and transactions quickly expanded, forming a "replenishment market". Wind data shows that A-share transactions shrank before the holiday and increased significantly after the holiday, which has become an important support for "rising more and falling less after the Spring Festival".
What is "spring restlessness"? What are the characteristics?
This is a wave of seasonal market for A-shares at the beginning of each year, with three major rules:
Time concentration: usually starts in December of the previous year and lasts until about February of the following year; The catalyst is clear: mostly driven by favorable policies or improved economic expectations (such as the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectations of the two sessions, etc.); Significant gains: average increases of 10%–15% for about 40 days. Over the past 16 years, the "spring restlessness" has almost never been absent! How is it this year? In the last week before the holiday, the three major indexes rebounded across the board, and technology stocks took the lead in stabilizing, indicating that many funds chose to "hold shares for the holiday". Although the pre-holiday transaction has shrunk, the average daily turnover still exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the liquidity is not bad. On the last trading day before the holiday, although A-shares fell across the board due to the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, semiconductor equipment and other sectors representing "new quality productivity" were significantly resistant to the decline; Funds are actually rebalancing positions rather than retreating - from cyclical stocks to the direction of technological growth with solid fundamentals and clear industrial trends. From the perspective of funds: although the new funds have slowed down, there has been a net subscription of equity ETFs, indicating that existing funds are still flowing in; The funds of the two financial institutions (margin trading) temporarily flowed out, and they were more wait-and-see, waiting for the opportunity to take action after the holiday. Historical law + capital trend + policy window, the triple factor is superimposed, and the "spring restlessness" in 2026 is likely to come. Don't rush to chase higher prices after the holiday, but you can focus on: the main line of science and technology, new quality productivity, and policy beneficiary sectors - this may be the first wave of opportunities of the year. This year's "spring restlessness" may be stronger There are several positive factors that are superimposed: In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, policy dividends can be expected, and the market has higher expectations for reform and growth; Global liquidity easing: the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, and foreign capital is expected to return to emerging markets; Residents' funds are flowing to the stock market: more and more people are turning their deposits into funds and stocks; The ultra-long 9-day Spring Festival holiday: consumption started early, tourism, catering, retail and other data were eye-catching, and the signal of economic recovery was clearer, which enhanced market confidence. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, reminded to pay attention to two key signals: Can the daily trading volume of A-shares be quickly enlarged after the holiday (such as returning to more than 2 trillion yuan)? At present, there is a high possibility of a 'spring offensive' after the holiday. Hong Kong stocks may also rise, and in recent years, the trend of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has become more and more synchronized. For example, after the Spring Festival in 2024 and 2025, Hong Kong stocks will have a "passive follow-up" - A-shares are the strongest, and Hong Kong stocks will also follow. If A-shares make a strong effort this year, Hong Kong stocks may ride the wind again. Historical laws point to the dominance of "growth + small and medium-sized caps" Before and after the Spring Festival, A-shares often stage a "style switch": Before the holiday: Funds prefer large-cap stocks and value stocks (such as banks, high-dividend blue chips), and seek stability. After the holiday: When the wind turns, small and medium-cap and technology growth stocks tend to perform better. Wind data shows that in the past 10 years, in the five trading days after the Spring Festival: the CSI 1000 (representing small-cap stocks) and the ChiNext index led the average gain; The CSI 500 (mid-cap stock) has risen in 9 out of 10 years, with a higher win rate than large-cap indices such as the SSE 50 and the CSI 300. In the 16 years from 2010 to 2025, 14 years have seen a style switch of "from value to growth", and the probability is very high. Will this year be different? A month before the Spring Festival of the Year of the Horse, the market did once favor value styles (such as high dividends and resource stocks), which caused some people to speculate: Will it continue to go in value after the holiday? However, the current mainstream institutional view still believes that technological growth is still the main line. However, there are also voices that the opportunity for value stocks cannot be ignored. Before the holiday, due to the sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices, the market was worried that the performance of nonferrous metals and overseas AI giants would be affected, but these concerns have now been significantly alleviated. After the holiday, the following directions were listed as the focus of allocation by a number of institutions: scientific and technological growth: AI applications, power grid equipment; Cyclical sector: chemical; Resource products: non-ferrous metals; Overseas chain: construction machinery, special equipment. Jingtai View|The post-holiday style may be "growth + dividends dance together" Although historical laws support "small-cap growth dominance", this year may be a little different: the industry trend is clear: the main line such as AI and high-end manufacturing is booming, and large-cap growth stocks (such as leading technology companies) may also strengthen simultaneously; High-dividend assets are still ballast stones: In a low-interest rate environment, high-dividend sectors such as banks and energy are still favored by long-term funds as the bottom position Therefore, the post-holiday market may not be "growth completely replaces value", but more likely - "technology growth leads the rise, high dividends are stable", and the two coexist and rise Don't just stare at the blue chips of the market! History and fundamentals point to the fact that the growth of small and medium-sized caps and technology is more resilient after the holiday, but high-dividend assets do not need to be lost. The spring market of 2026 is likely to be a combination of "offense looks at growth, defense relies on dividends".
