The world's two major chip giants, Qualcomm and Arm, recently issued a warning that there is a serious shortage of high-end memory (HBM) that is dragging down smartphone production.

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon bluntly said at the earnings conference: "Tight memory supply and soaring prices may directly limit the total shipments of the entire smartphone market this year."

Customers have already told Qualcomm that they intend to cut their phone production plans for this year. According to media reports, a number of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers are lowering their shipment targets for 2026, and one of them will even cut 20% of production.

This is not a short-term problem, but a medium- to long-term structural shortage. Intel's new CEO Chen Liwu put it more directly: "As far as I know, this shortage will not ease in the short term."

The reason is simple: high-end memory is too sought after. Market research firm TrendForce predicts that 70% of high-end memory chips produced globally this year will be "eaten" by AI data centers, leaving less and less share for consumer electronics such as mobile phones and computers

| AI grabs memory, mobile phones and computers "can't get enough to eat"

The global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is being frantically "sucked up" by AI data centers, and the consumer electronics industry has become a victim.

Micron Technology said that in the past quarter, the memory shortage problem has worsened due to the surge in demand for high-end chips in AI servers, and this tension will continue at least after this year.

Goldman Sachs analyst William Chan also warned clients: "The current memory shortage is real and is accelerating."

The fundamental reason is that the AI infrastructure is too fierce, and all key chips are "rolled up", resulting in smartphones, laptops and other products not getting enough high-performance memory, and production capacity is forced to be limited.

The market has spoken with price: according to data from Amazon's price comparison platform CamelCamelCamel, the price of a common high-end memory module (Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB) has soared from $145 to $790 in half a year, more than quadrupling in half a year! This shows that the "appetite" of AI not only pushes up server costs, but also directly makes electronic products more expensive and difficult to buy for ordinary consumers.

Memory shortages have hit the entire industry, and giants have lowered their expectations

The severe shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is spreading from chip factories to end products, and the entire consumer electronics industry chain is under pressure.

MediaTek (the world's major mobile phone chip manufacturer) admitted on a conference call this week that the supply situation is "changing rapidly", and the implication is that it is getting more and more tense.

Goldman Sachs analyst Allen Chang has officially lowered its global PC shipment forecast for 2026 to 2028, citing the lack of memory and high costs. Nintendo became an early "victim" - due to the price increase of key parts such as HBM, the company's profits would be greatly compressed, and the stock price would fall. In fact, as early as December last year, Goldman Sachs warned that it would face HBM supply problems.

Even Arm, which makes money from technology licensing (which provides the chip architecture for more than 95% of the world's smartphones), is not immune because its customers, mobile phone manufacturers, are cutting production due to a lack of cores.

What's even more intriguing is that some industry insiders publicly suggested last week: "If you plan to buy a mobile phone, computer or other electronic products, buy it now." The meaning behind this sentence is clear: the memory shortage will not ease in the short term, and there may be fewer and more expensive products in the future.

Everyone has acquiesced to this "memory shortage" caused by AI, which is reshaping the pattern of the consumer electronics market.

This memory shortage may last for several years

The industry generally believes that this wave of memory crisis will not pass anytime soon.

Intel's CEO's pessimistic judgment represents the mainstream view: as long as AI demand continues to be hot, consumer electronics "can't grab" high-end memory, which is likely to become the new normal.

Market research firm TrendForce pointed out that most of the high-end memory chips produced this year will be taken away by data centers, leaving a pitiful share of consumer products such as mobile phones and computers.

Why? Because memory manufacturers naturally prioritize orders with higher profits - and AI servers are willing to pay high prices for high-performance memory, consumer electronics customers are "not fragrant" in comparison.

For investors, the rules of the game are changing

 For consumer electronics stocks:

Short-term caution: mobile phone, PC, and game console manufacturers are facing the dual pressure of "rising costs + weak demand"; Prefer high-end brands (such as Apple) - strong bargaining power and can pass on part of the cost; Avoid manufacturers with a high proportion of low-end models - thin profits and cannot bear price increases.

For the semiconductor sector:

Key layout memory leaders: Micron (MU), Samsung (005930. KS) directly benefited from AI demand; Pay attention to domestic storage breakthroughs: the long-term logic of Changxin's storage industry chain (GigaDevice Innovation, Lanqi Technology, etc.) has been strengthened; Be cautious about chip design companies that rely on consumer electronics (such as some CIS and power management IC manufacturers).

For macro configuration:

Memory shortage = new source of inflation? electronic product CPI or phased upward; If the Fed delays interest rate cuts as a result, the valuation of technology growth stocks will be under pressure.