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The new blueprint for the capital market in the 15th Five-Year Plan: How to invest in the next five years?
Time:2025-12-12

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In December 2025, with the adoption of the "15th Five-Year Plan" by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, China's capital market ushered in a high-standard, systematic and implementable reform roadmap. This is a major strategic deployment made by the Party Central Committee to scientifically judge and accurately grasp the international and domestic situation during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, closely focus on the basic realization of the goal of socialist modernization, and make a major strategic deployment from an overall perspective, which points out the way forward for doing a good job in the reform, development and stability of the capital market.


The core is one sentence: make the capital market more "inclusive" and "adaptable", and truly become the "main engine" to serve new quality productivity, benefit hundreds of millions of people, and support financial power.


Sounds grandiose? Don't worry, Jingtai will help you disassemble: What does the country want to do? Which sectors/assets will benefit? How should ordinary investors lay out?


01


A picture to understand: the six key directions of the capital market in the 15th Five-Year Plan

The People's Daily recently published a signed article by Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The article pointed out that China's economy has been improving for a long time and the capital market has a solid foundation, but it still faces some problems, such as:

  • there are not enough scientific and technological innovation enterprises in listed companies;

  • "long-term funds" such as pensions and insurance have not entered the market sufficiently;

  • There are still problems in the market such as financial fraud and speculation on junk stocks;

  • The external environment is complex, and the input risk increases.


To this end, the capital market will focus on promoting six major directions in the future and promote high-quality development with reform:

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To put it simply, in the future, A-shares should become more "smart" (supporting technology), more "stable" (long money coming in), more "clean" (strict supervision), and more "open" (attracting foreign investment), which will ultimately benefit both really good companies and ordinary investors.


02


Why do we mention "inclusiveness" and "adaptability" now?

Because times have changed. In the past: the capital market mainly served traditional manufacturing and state-owned enterprise financing; Now: AI, quantum, commercial aerospace, synthetic biology and other new quality productivity enterprises are rising, but they "burn money for a long time, make slow profits, and have light assets", and the traditional listing standards are stuck.


The state realizes that it cannot let the future "Huawei" and "CATL" be forced to go overseas because of the rigidity of the system. Therefore, what the "15th Five-Year Plan" needs to do is to make the rules "live"

allowing unprofitable technology companies to go public;

support mergers and acquisitions to build a world-class enterprise;

Let patient capital (such as pensions) dare to invest, be willing to invest, and invest for a long time.


Why reform now?

Serving new quality productivity: The future economy depends on science and technology and innovation, and innovation is inseparable from capital support. The capital market should become a key hub in the virtuous circle of "technology-industry-finance".


Let the people truly benefit: At present, there are more than 200 million shareholders and more than 700 million people in the country, and the capital market is an important channel for everyone to share economic growth. In 2024, the dividends of listed companies will reach 2.4 trillion yuan. In the future, we will provide more good products to help residents increase their property income.


Building a financial power: The capital market is the core of modern finance. By 2035, our country will build a "highly adaptable, competitive and inclusive" capital market to enhance its international influence.

A higher level of opening up


With the increase in the attractiveness of RMB assets, it is necessary to attract more foreign investment through institutional opening-up and help the construction of a "dual circulation" and a unified national market.


03


Three major signals determine the main line of investment in the next 5 years

Signal 1: "New quality productivity" is the biggest policy dividend

The capital market will give priority to supporting: semiconductors, AI large models, commercial aerospace, new energy storage, biomanufacturing, low-altitude economy and other cutting-edge fields; Tools such as science and technology innovation bonds, green bonds, and REITs will be expanded to provide diversified financing for innovative enterprises.


Investment enlightenment: Avoid the "old economy" involution track and embrace the combination of "hard technology + scene landing".


Signal 2: "Real dividends, real buybacks" are good companies

The policy clearly requires listed companies to "strengthen their sense of return"; The cash dividend of 2.4 trillion yuan (2024) is just the beginning, and the future dividend rate and repurchase cancellation will become the valuation anchor.


Investment enlightenment: From "storytelling" to "looking at cash flow", high dividends + growth are popular.


Signal 3: "Long money" is coming, and short-term hype is receding

pensions, insurance, and public funds will establish a long-term assessment mechanism; The reform of public funds focuses on "binding with investors' interests" and bids farewell to "scale first".


Investment enlightenment: The market style has switched to "institutionalization and long-term", and it is becoming more and more difficult to make money chasing the rise and fall.


04


Advice to ordinary investors

The capital market of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is no longer a casino, but an incubator of scientific and technological innovation, a reservoir of people's wealth, and an arena for the game of great powers.


The country is laying out: using institutional tolerance to retain future unicorns; use long money and long-term investment to iron out the madness of the market; Use strong supervision + openness to create a safe and dynamic financial infrastructure.


For ordinary people, the biggest opportunity is not to predict tomorrow's ups and downs, but to invest money in companies that are changing China.


If you are a stock investor:

Focus on "high-quality listed companies": revenue growth + R&D investment + stable dividends; Stay away from "shell resources" and "micro-cap stocks": under the normalization of delisting, the risk of liquidity depletion is extremely high; Pay attention to the dividends of the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board/ChiNext Board: the inclusiveness of the system has been improved, and high-quality technology stocks may face revaluation.


 If you are a fund investor:

increase holdings of equity index funds (such as Science and Technology Innovation 50, CSI 300); Prefer active funds with "holder interest binding mechanism" (such as floating rate products); Fixed investment instead of timing: In the era of long-term investment, time is more important than point selection.


If you focus on global configurations:

The attractiveness of RMB assets has rebounded: the trend of foreign capital return has emerged; Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shanghai-London Stock Connect and other channels will be optimized, focusing on the opportunity of narrowing the A+H premium; The construction of Shanghai + Hong Kong dual international financial centers has accelerated, and the number of cross-border financial products has increased.



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