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There are variables in the US tariff policy!
Time:2025-10-12

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On September 26, local time, the White House said that the latest tariff measures on drugs do not apply to countries that have reached trade agreements with the United States. This means that pharmaceutical companies in some countries may be "exempted" from paying such high taxes.


The day before, Trump suddenly announced on his social platform: From October 1, 100% tariffs will be imposed on all imported branded drugs and patented drugs! In a word, the price of imported drugs may directly double. As soon as this news came out, pharmaceutical stocks in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets generally fell.


Trump first "spoke harshly" to frighten the market, and then the White House "patched" to ease the mood. The policy is fickle, making pharmaceutical companies and investors sweat.


01


The "drug tax stick" is swung at the UK

The White House clarified on September 26 that the planned tariffs on imported drugs will not be one-size-fits-all, and countries that have signed trade agreements with the United States can enjoy "special treatment".


Which countries are "exempt"?


Trade partners such as the EU and Japan are not affected by the new tariffs and continue to implement the original agreement: the EU only charges a maximum tariff of 15% on drugs exported to the United States; The same is true for Japan, where the tax rate will not be higher than that of other countries that have signed the agreement.


But the UK is not so lucky, although there is a trade agreement between the UK and the United States, but the specific terms on drug tariffs have not yet been negotiated, so the UK may face high tariffs of 100% on drugs exported to the United States - that is, double the price.


The UK side has already acted: Varun Chandra, the UK's chief business advisor, will travel to Washington next week; He will meet with senior officials of the Trump administration to focus on trade issues, especially pharmaceutical exports; Britain is willing to pay more for some drugs to keep exports to the United States.


The US drug tariff policy this time is not a "global kill", but "looking at relationships and negotiating conditions". Countries with agreements are temporarily safe, and those that have not finished negotiations (such as the United Kingdom) must be negotiated quickly, otherwise they will really be "stabbed".


02


A new round of "tariff storm" is sweeping the world

Trump announced on his social platform that from October 1, 2025, high tariffs will be imposed on many types of imported goods, causing market shock:

Kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, building materials: 50% tariff applies

Imported furniture: 30% tariff is imposed

Branded and patented drugs: 100% tariff (double!) )

Imported heavy-duty trucks: 25% tariff

Trump also said, "Want to be tax-free? Yes, but it must be built in the United States. ”


Affected by the previous tariffs, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that in August 2025, U.S. furniture prices will rise by 4.7% year-on-year, and people have begun to "pay" for tariffs.


The U.S. Chamber of Commerce publicly opposed the tax increase on heavy trucks on the grounds that major U.S. importers — Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland — are allies and do not pose a security threat. The tax increase will only drive up logistics costs and hurt domestic companies.


Previously, the United States had announced that it would impose a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts from August 1, and listed a tariff "exemption list" for some drugs and aircraft parts.


In this regard, Europe reacted strongly: German Vice Chancellor Klingbeier criticized: The US tariff policy is "self-harming" and ultimately harms itself more than the EU; European Parliament Trade President Lange & Söhne warned: The US approach undermines international rules, and Europe will take countermeasures if necessary.


03


This is not a "random punch", but a "precision strike + strategic deterrence"

Many people think that Trump is "governing emotionally" again, but Jingtai believes that this is a highly strategic "trade leverage" operation.


To the EU and Japan: Stabilize allies, divide opponents, and do not move them in order to avoid a full-scale trade war. At the same time, it released a signal that "as long as you sign an agreement with me, there will be protection". The aim is to attract more countries to the negotiating table.


He killed chickens and monkeys in Britain and forced them to make concessions. Britain's rush to reach a Anglo-US free trade agreement after Brexit, and raising taxes at this moment is a typical "extreme pressure" tactic. Force the UK to make greater concessions in finance, data, pharmaceuticals and other fields.


For Canada: 1,000 injuries and 800 losses, Canada's steel industry has been hit hard. Steel output in July plummeted by 24.8% from February; shrinking by 19.1% in a single month, the largest decline in the year; exports fell by more than 30%. But the United States also paid the price.


Investment advice:

1. Risk aversion: Stay away from export-dependent European pharmaceutical stocks to the United States

Although the EU is temporarily exempted, policy uncertainty is extremely high. Recommended reduction: large pharmaceutical companies such as Germany and France (such as Bayer and Sanofi); If future negotiations break down, they may be instantly included in the tax list.


2. Focus on opportunities: U.S. homegrown pharmaceutical and manufacturing reshoring concepts

Trump made it clear: "Want to be tax-free? Come to the United States to build a factory! "Positive: Local CMO/CDMO companies in the United States (such as Catalent); pharmaceutical equipment and plant construction companies; U.S. Biomedical Park Operator.


3. Beware of shocks: Canadian resources and manufacturing-related assets

Industries that rely on steel, aluminum, and forestry to export to the United States are under pressure. Attention: Canadian steel stocks (such as Stelco); Changes in the performance of cross-border logistics and railway transportation companies.


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