Musk's Starlink business is becoming a disruptive force in emerging markets.

Recently, JPMorgan Chase & Co. pointed out in its latest research report that Starlink's global users have grown from 5 million in April 2025 to more than 6 million, covering 134 countries. What's more, its parent company SpaceX has reportedly acquired spectrum for wireless and mobile satellite services, paving the way for its "direct to cell" (DTC) services.

This series of combinations directly impacts the existing market pattern.

Starlink's expansion has not stopped

The growing number of users is just the beginning, and what's really exciting is that it's getting stronger and more practical.

Recently, Starlink got a key "resource" - 50MHz of wireless and mobile satellite service spectrum. SpaceX said this will help them achieve a bold goal: to completely eliminate global communication "blind spots" and allow mobile phones to access the Internet in deserts, oceans and mountains.

The core technology to achieve this goal is called "direct connection cell" (DTC). To put it simply, it is to let your ordinary mobile phone directly connect to the satellite without changing cards or phones, send text messages, make calls, and surf the Internet!

From 2024, Starlink will already be able to send and receive text messages via satellite; And this time they get the new spectrum, which means they can build more advanced satellites, and voice and data services will be stronger and more wider in the future.

Currently, Starlink has deployed about 8,400 low-orbit satellites in the sky, but their goal is 42,000 - five times the size now! In order to promote it quickly, Starlink is joining forces with many telecommunications companies around the world, such as:

T-Mobile in the United States

Optus in Australia

Rogers of Canada

KDDI in Japan

Kyivstar in Ukraine

Partnership models also vary: T-Mobile launched a $10 per month "T-Satellite" satellite service; Japan's KDDI directly provides users with free SMS functions. These collaborations not only allowed Starlink to earn new money, but also allowed its services to quickly enter the lives of ordinary people. In the future, no matter where you are, having a signal on your phone may no longer be a luxury.

Technological advancements have driven significant cost reductions

Why is Starlink so "fierce"? It's not about how many satellites it can send, but that it's completely rewriting the rules of cost and capacity.

JPMorgan's analysis shows that satellite Internet is standing on the doorstep of a "technology explosion" - in the next few years, network speed may increase hundreds of times, and costs may plummet by 90%!

Let's look at the capacity (that is, "how much network traffic can be provided"): Starlink itself plans to expand the number of satellites from the current more than 8,000 to 42,000; Amazon is not to be outdone, its "Kuiber" project will send more than 3,200 satellites; Countries around the world are also accelerating their layout.

So many satellites go to the sky together, which is equivalent to weaving a super dense "space Wi-Fi network" for the earth, and the network capacity will naturally explode.

Moreover, the new satellite is becoming more and more "capable". For example, Starlink's latest V2 Mini satellite has a single communication capacity of 4 times that of the previous generation! This means that the same number of satellites can serve more people and transmit more data.

Let's look at the cost again: Now send a rocket, using "Falcon 9", the cost is about $62 million. But the Starship being tested by SpaceX is a fully reusable superrocket that is expected to drop to less than $10 million once it matures!

Coupled with the higher efficiency and bandwidth of the new generation of satellites, JPMorgan Chase & Co. calculated that in the future, the cost per unit of network traffic could drop by 90% or even 97%.

To put it simply, in the past, it was "sending a satellite, which was so expensive"; In the future, it may be "mass launches, cheap to fly". Starlink's ambition is not only to let you send WeChat in the wild, but to make satellite Internet access fast, cheap, and ubiquitous - this is its truly subversive confidence.

Emerging market operators face serious challenges

Although Starlink is cool, the price is still a big problem in developing countries if they want to "fly into the homes of ordinary people". For example, in the Philippines, Starlink costs $67 per month, almost double the local mainstream fiber optic broadband (such as PLDT, about $28). Coupled with the cost of terminal equipment that costs hundreds of dollars, it is still too expensive for many families.

But this does not prevent Starlink from bringing "pressure" to traditional telecom operators.

In many countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, only 25% and 16% of households have access to fixed broadband respectively, which is far lower than in Europe and the United States. Why? Because rural and mountainous areas are less populated and wide, and fiber is too expensive, operators feel that it is "not cost-effective" and simply do not build.

This leaves a "big gap" for Starlink - if you don't want to pave it, I will cover it from the sky! In order to grab this market, Starlink has begun to "down-to-earth": it has launched a cheaper "residential light version" package, with a slightly slower internet speed than the standard version, but the price is much lower. In Malaysia, the price of this package is already similar to that of local fiber; Smaller and cheaper Starlink Mini antennas are launched, which are easy to install and less costly; In some regions, the promotion of "12-month contract free equipment fee" has also been launched to lower the entry threshold for users.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. believes that as the cost of satellite bandwidth continues to decline, Starlink is fully capable of giving the money saved to users in the future. In the Philippines, for example, as long as the monthly fee is reduced by another 60%, it can be tied with local operators - once realized, the popularity of Starlink in emerging markets may be greatly accelerated.

In a word, it is still expensive, but Starlink is "rolling up prices", and it is likely to make it cheaper and simpler to access the Internet in remote areas in the future.

This is not "competition", but "dimensionality reduction strike"

Many people think that Starlink is just a "supplementary network", but Jingtai believes that it is a "dimensionality reduction blow" to the traditional telecommunications industry. For four types of companies in particular, the risk is the greatest: emerging market operators that rely on high tariffs (e.g., Africa, South Asia); traditional telecom operators with old satellite services; Regional companies with limited infrastructure coverage; Communications enterprises with high leverage and low cash flow.

The traditional business model is: "There are few people, the land is remote, the network is difficult to build, and the expensive money has to be used." And Starlink's model is: "A global network, rockets are sent in batches, and the cost is so low that you can't imagine it." "One relies on the sky, the other relies on the earth, but the sky is obviously more boundless.

Investment advice: On the one hand, there is risk, and on the other hand, there is opportunity

1. Avoidance: High-risk telecom stocks

traditional operators in emerging markets, especially those with old satellite services and stagnant user growth; and telecommunications companies with high leverage and dependence on "high profits in remote areas".

Recommendation: Hold cautiously and pay attention to cash flow changes.

2. Attention: Starlink industry chain and "integrators"

Terminal equipment manufacturers: Starlink users are growing, driving demand for antennas and routers; Rocket and satellite manufacturers: SpaceX supply chain (although closed, but you can pay attention to secondary market partners).

Potential partners: T-Mobile has partnered with Starlink for DTC, and other operators may follow the "joint venture" model.

Attention: Satellite communication concepts such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Ligado Networks, etc.; Qualcomm (QCOM): Its chips already support Starlink DTC.