On July 26, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the third batch of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the trade-in of consumer goods this year was 69 billion yuan. So far, a total of 231 billion yuan of treasury bond funds have been issued this year. Wu Gai, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, said that the remaining 69 billion yuan will be issued in October and allocated in batches to achieve cross-cycle adjustment.

280 million people participated, leveraging consumption of 1.6 trillion yuan

As of mid-July 2025, official data shows that 280 million people across the country have applied for trade-in subsidies, driving sales of related goods to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan! This is not a small number, which is equivalent to an average of 1 in 5 people in the country participating in this "consumption carnival".

The consumer market is "ignited": home appliances, furniture, and mobile phones are on fire! Looking at a set of retail data, it can be described as "eye-catching":

Home appliances and audio-visual equipment: up 30.7% year-on-year

Cultural office supplies: increased by 25.4%

Communication equipment (such as mobile phones and tablets): increased by 24.1%

Furniture: up 22.9%

Passenger car retail sales: up 10.8%

Behind these data, there is a real recovery in consumption, which has also driven a year-on-year increase of 5% in total retail sales of consumer goods. To put it simply, "trade-in" is not a red envelope, but real money leverages the consumer market.

Hot policy keyword - "trade-in"

The National Development and Reform Initiative released blockbuster news that the third batch of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds of 69 billion yuan this year has been issued to local governments to support the trade-in of consumer goods. This is not a small amount of money, but a "big move" to promote consumption and activate the economy with real money. Moreover, the good news continues - the fourth batch of 69 billion funds will also be issued in October, the policy is still increasing, and the trend of consumption recovery has been clear:

1. The policy rhythm is clear: funds are issued in batches, and consumption continues to exert force

The state's arrangement this time is very rhythmic: the third batch of 69 billion yuan of funds: has been issued and is promoting the replacement of consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles; The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of funds: It is expected to be issued in October this year to continue to support the implementation of local policies. This means that from now until the end of the year, the trade-in policy will not be "broken", and the consumer market will continue to "keep warm".

2. Local funds should be "balanced use": policies are more stable, detailed and long-lasting

The state not only "throws money", but also emphasizes the use of funds more balanced and refined: together with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments, urge all localities to refine the use of funds in different fields and time periods; Optimize the subsidy distribution method to ensure that the policy is more stable and has wider coverage.

3. Improve policy mechanisms: crack down on "routines" and ensure fairness

In order to prevent the policy from being "exploited", the state has also taken real action: working with the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments to strengthen product quality and price supervision; urge enterprises to operate in accordance with laws and regulations; Strictly prevent violations such as "rising first and then making up" and "fraud and compensation". In other words, this policy should not only be "distributed", but also "used well and managed", so that the people can truly benefit, enterprises can get orders, and the economy can grow.

Trade-in is not a "short-term stimulus", but a "medium-term dividend"

From an investment perspective, we need to see several key signals behind this:

1. Strong policy sustainability: Funds are issued in batches, and the policy continues until the end of the year, and the recovery of consumption is not a "gust of wind".

2. The pulling effect is obvious: large-scale consumption such as home appliances, automobiles, and home furnishings continue to benefit, driving the upstream and downstream industrial chains.

3. Stricter regulatory mechanism: It will help standardize the industry, benefit leading compliance enterprises, and eliminate "fishing in troubled waters".

4. Opportunities for domestic substitution emerge: In the fields of home appliances, communication equipment, and new energy vehicles, domestic brands are expected to further expand their market share.

It is recommended to focus on the following directions:

Home appliances and smart homes: direct policy beneficiary sectors, Midea, Haier, Gree and other leaders are worth paying attention to; Smart home appliances, energy-saving products, integrated home furnishings and other subdivisions have great potential.

consumer electronics and communication equipment: demand for mobile phones, tablets, and wearable devices has picked up; Domestic chip and component manufacturers are expected to usher in order growth.

Home and decoration: home appliances are bought, and furniture naturally needs to be replaced; The trend of home integration and customization is obvious, and related enterprises are expected to benefit.

New energy vehicles and supporting industries: the trade-in policy of automobiles has increased, and new energy vehicles are the main force; Pay attention to supporting services such as batteries, charging piles, intelligent driving, and auto finance.

In general, trade-in is not a short-term stimulus, but a systemic opportunity of "consumption + manufacturing + technology". The policy continues to exert force, dividends are being released, and what investors have to do is to seize the rhythm and choose the right track.