Home > MarketWatch > Industry News
Reciprocal Tariff 2.0 War!
Time:2025-07-19

26158656-cvrfvR.jpg?auth_key=1753027199-

The "reciprocal tariff" moratorium was extended, and Trump started the "reciprocal tariff 2.0."


According to Trump's latest statement, he will impose flat tariffs of 15 percent or 20 percent on most trading partners, but has already imposed tariffs of 50 percent, 35 percent and 20 percent on Brazil, Canada and Vietnam, respectively, far exceeding the tariffs in April.


According to the latest news, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, from August 1.


26158656-kbYdfy.jpg?auth_key=1753027199-


"Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" is more fierce than imagined? Judging from the current progress of the negotiations, the current round of tariff policy may be more vigorous and faster than expected.


01


A 50% tariff is imposed on all Brazilian products

The most striking thing about Trump's second wave of levy letters was the 50 percent tariff on all Brazilian products, up from the 10 percent tariff on April 2 and the highest level since Reciprocal Tariff 2.0.


To put it simply, the U.S. is going to charge a lot more for all the goods it imports from Brazil. As soon as this decision came out, it immediately aroused the attention and discussion of all parties.


The Brazilian side clearly did not buy this decision. According to CCTV News, Brazil's vice president and minister of development, industry, trade and services Géraldo Alcmín responded on the same day, saying: "I don't see any reason to raise tariffs on Brazil." Brazil is not a problem for the United States. He further explained that the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil, which means that the U.S. exports more goods to Brazil than it imports from Brazil.


80% of U.S. exports to Brazil are tariff-free and not subject to taxes. In other words, Brazil feels that this is unfair because they believe that they are not causing any trade problems for the United States, but that the United States is benefiting more from it.


02


|Suddenly impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods at the last minute

The United States and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, but all Vietnamese exports to the United States will have to pay at least 20% tariffs in the future. Not only that, but he also stressed that Vietnam must "completely open its market to the United States." It sounds like a unilateral "increase in conditions" by the United States.


Vietnamese people are confused: what about the 11% who said yes? According to reports, in fact, the Vietnamese side has already negotiated with the United States before, and the two sides were close to reaching a preliminary consensus on a tariff rate of about 11 percent.


As a result, Trump suddenly "kicked the door" and almost doubled the tax rate to 20%, and the Vietnamese government reacted strongly: surprise, disappointment, anger, three words that accurately summed up their reaction. It's like negotiating a table of meals, only to start the table when the other party suddenly changes the menu and adds a bill that you haven't ordered.


03


Canada is also "hit": 35% tariffs are coming

According to CCTV News, Trump announced on the 10th: From August 1, the United States will impose a 35% tariff on all goods imported from Canada. He also added that not only Canada, but also EU member states will also receive similar tax increase notification letters in the next few days. It seems that this time it is ready to "cast a wide net".


Canada is a close ally and friendly neighbor of the United States, and the trade relationship between the two countries has always been very close. The sudden imposition of such high tariffs on all Canadian imports is a bit of a surprise.

Not only that, but Trump also announced an even bigger "surprise": from August 1, a 50% tariff on all copper imports into the United States will be imposed. What does this mean? For companies that rely on copper imports, costs will rise significantly; This may also trigger price fluctuations in the relevant industrial chain.


Not only Canadian goods, but even the base metal copper has not been spared, and Trump has really made a "heavy hand" this time.


04


The market ignored tariffs and continued to rebound

Although Trump's "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" were stronger than expected, the market's reaction was unexpectedly calm. Specifically, the S&P 500 is within striking of record highs after Trump issued a second wave of "tax letters" on Wednesday; The index of large technology stocks rose 1.1%, with Nvidia breaking through its $4 trillion market capitalization at one point.


It's like the market staged an "emperor's new clothes", although Trump is shouting "wolf", but investors choose to "turn a blind eye".


The reason why the market reacted calmly is mainly because everyone interprets this "reciprocal tariff 2.0" as another "TACO" phenomenon. What is "TACO"?


TACO(Trump Always Chickens Out) refers to Trump's capricious pattern of tariff policy: first throwing out sky-high threats, and then backing down under market pressure or negotiated compromises.

In other words, the market sees these threats from Trump as more of a negotiation strategy than a real policy intent. Everyone is betting that the tariff stick will not fall soon.


There are two main reasons why this phenomenon has been staged repeatedly:

Market pressure: Whenever Trump proposes high tariffs, the market often fluctuates wildly, and investors and businesses pressure the government in various ways to withdraw or postpone tariffs.


Negotiation strategy: Trump is well aware of the importance of the market, and in the face of the market's "death pressure", he has to make concessions, extend the effective period of tariffs, or simply abandon some threats.


TEL:
18117862238
Email:yumiao@jt-capital.com.cn
Address:20th floor, Taihe · international financial center, high tech Zone, Chengdu

Copyright © 2021 jt-capital.com.cn All Rights Reserved 

Copyright: JamThame capital 粤ICP备2022003949号-1  

LINKS

Copyright © 2021 jt-capital.com.cn All Rights Reserved 

Copyright: JamThame capital 粤ICP备2022003949号-1