On March 27, according to a number of foreign media reports, OpenAI expects its revenue to more than triple this year, reaching US$12.7 billion (about 92.2 billion yuan), more than tripling from US$3.7 billion in 2024. OpenAI expects revenue to continue to grow rapidly, more than doubling to $29.4 billion next year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Despite the significant increase in revenue, OpenAI still faces significant cost pressures and is not expected to become profitable until 2029.
$40 billion financing can only be taken half?
Due to the continuous investment in data centers and talent to develop top-notch large models, OpenAI is still in a state of making ends meet. It is reported that OpenAI expects revenue to exceed $125 billion by 2029 and achieve positive cash flow. With revenues not yet covering costs, OpenAI is still looking for more financing.
According to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is finalizing a $40 billion funding round led by SoftBank. In addition to SoftBank Group, Magnetar Capital、Coatue Management、Founders Fund and Altimeter Investors such as Capital Management are in talks to participate in the round that will value it at $300 billion.
This will be the largest funding round ever. The funding was almost double the company's valuation of $157 billion when it raised money last October.
This round of financing is divided into two phases. OpenAI will receive $10 billion first, with up to another $30 billion if the for-profit transformation is completed by the end of the year. If the restructuring is not completed, the second tranche will be cut to $10 billion.
Can OpenAI get 40 billion or 20 billion? It all depends on the outcome of the transformation.
OpenAI expects revenue to grow 2x this year
As the world's top large-scale model startup, OpenAI's commercialization has always attracted the attention of the outside world, especially investors.
Let's take a look at its "way to make money".
User subscriptions are the workhorse. According to a report by FutureSearch, OpenAI currently has about 9.88 million monthly paying users and annual recurring revenue of $3.4 billion. Interestingly, 84% of the revenue comes from ChatGPT's various subscription services (including Plus, Enterprise, and Team), while the API interface used by developers accounts for only about 15% of the revenue. This figure is basically consistent with the data previously revealed by CEO Altman.
Compared with the past data, OpenAI's explosive growth can be seen even more:
2022 revenue: $28 million
2023 revenue: $1.6 billion
Projected revenue in 2024: $3.4 billion
This exponential growth fully demonstrates the huge potential for AI commercialization.
OpenAI is taking a "sophisticated" route:
Sky-high model: The new O1-Pro model is priced at an astonishing price, with an input fee of $150/million tokens and an output fee of up to $600, which is 10 times the premium of the standard version. Doctor-level AI agents: The upcoming high-end agents will cost up to US$20,000 (about 145,000 yuan) per month, focusing on high-end markets such as finance and healthcare. Enterprise market breakthrough: ChatGPT Enterprise Edition has exceeded 1 million users.
With the launch of high-end products such as doctoral-level AI agents, OpenAI's revenue structure will be more diversified. These new products are expected to contribute 20%-25% of total revenue, further cementing its leading position in AI commercialization. For investors, OpenAI's successful experience is worth learning from all AI entrepreneurs.
There are still multiple obstacles to the transformation of a for-profit company
Behind the high financing is the increasing cost pressure of OpenAI.
When the AI giant raised money last fall, it promised investors that it would return its investment if it failed to complete the company's restructuring within two years. But the reality is that this transformation plan is facing a "triple door" challenge:
Three major stumbling blocks on the road to transformation: Musk's lawsuit: the old rival is blocking the restructuring through legal means; Microsoft's attitude: As the largest shareholder, Microsoft has made it clear that it will not give in easily; Financing pressures: If the transition fails, billions of dollars in financing will be problematic.
The financial situation is also a waste of money to train and run its AI systems and pay top researchers. In addition, the company has committed $18 billion to invest in Stargate, a data center construction project that has been backed by President Trump.
At present, investors are willing to spend money because they expect their convertible bonds to become real equity. But if the financing doesn't go well (for example, only half of the $40 billion target), OpenAI's already tight finances will be even worse.
According to Jingtai's observation, OpenAI is now like a "gold-swallowing beast": technology research and development will burn money, talent competition will burn money, and infrastructure investment will burn money. While the outlook is attractive ($125 billion annual revenue target), there is still a long way to go.
Investors are advised to remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on: the progress of the restructuring (especially Microsoft's attitude) and the availability of financing. After all, in the cash-burning war of AI, technology alone is not enough, financial health is equally important. Whether OpenAI can get through this hurdle remains to be seen.
