In the past few weeks, Nvidia has "fallen violently", and the price-to-earnings ratio has even fallen back to the level before the advent of ChatGPT. As a result, this year's Nvidia annual GTC conference is naturally pinned on high expectations by Wall Street analysts.
Hardware updates are the biggest highlight
Despite the initial setbacks for mass production, CEO Jensen Huang announced during a recent earnings call that Blackwell had "successfully achieved" mass production and generated "billions of dollars in sales" in the first quarter, despite a market buzz at last year's GTC. This news has undoubtedly injected a boost into NVIDIA's AI chip business.
Huang also "spoiled" the earnings call in advance, saying that "some very exciting stuff" would be shared at this year's GTC conference. The market generally expects that Nvidia will launch a new generation of chips - Blackwell Ultra GB300 and B300 series, which will be one of the biggest highlights of this GTC.
The mid-term update to the Blackwell architecture is expected to bring significant improvements. The B300 series chips will not only provide higher computing performance, but will also be equipped with 8 groups of 12-Hi HBM3E memory, up to 288GB of onboard memory. According to industry insiders, the performance of the B300 is 50% higher than that of the B200 series, and the GB300 may start shipping as early as May to accelerate the replacement of the GB200.
It is worth mentioning that due to the higher power consumption and heat dissipation requirements of the new generation of chips, NVIDIA will completely abandon the traditional air cooling solution and switch to water cooling technology. This change will not only promote the surge in the use of water-cooled plates and water-cooled quick couplings, but also mark the arrival of the "second cold revolution" and bring new growth opportunities to the related industry chain.
The launch of a new generation of chips will not only promote the progress of AI technology, but also provide investors with new layout opportunities. After all, in the "arms race" of AI chips, Nvidia is still the "number one player" in the lead.
Spoilers 2027 product roadmap
This year's GTC conference is not only an opportunity for NVIDIA to showcase the Blackwell platform, but also its next-generation AI chip architecture, Vera Rubin's stage. Last June, Huang first revealed the Rubin platform, which is expected to be officially unveiled in 2026, marking a more critical step on Nvidia's path to artificial general intelligence (AGI).
The Rubin platform is rumored to be equipped with eight sets of HBM4E memory, providing up to 288GB of memory capacity, while also being powered by Vera CPU、NVLink 6 switches (operating speed 3600 GB/s), CX9 NIC (1600 supported Gb/s) and X1600 switches. Huang has previously hinted that the Rubin architecture will take a major leap forward in performance and functionality, demonstrating its transformative potential.
There is also speculation among industry insiders that Huang may "spoil" Rubin's product line in advance at this year's GTC conference, and may even reveal the product roadmap for 2027. This forward-looking information disclosure will not only spark heated discussions in the market, but also further consolidate NVIDIA's leadership position in the field of AI chips.
The 2027 product roadmap that may be revealed at the GTC conference will provide investors with more forward-looking information to help lay out AI chips and related industry chains.
Revive Nvidia's stock price?
Nvidia, despite its strong leadership in global AI, has not escaped the sell-off in U.S. technology stocks recently. Under the dual pressure of Trump's tariff policy and the threat of a recession in the United States, Nvidia's stock price has fallen by 19.01% this year, and its market value has shrunk to $2.65 trillion. As of the close of trading on March 11, its price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months has fallen to around 23 times, well below the 35 times in January this year and nearly 70 times in May 2023, and even lower than the 40-45 times range when ChatGPT was released. This valuation level has fallen to multi-year lows.
In this context, whether the upcoming GTC conference can be an opportunity for Nvidia's stock price to regain momentum has become the focus of market attention. Melius Ben, Managing Director of Research Reitzes believes that the risks faced by Nvidia have been largely priced in by the market, and there is a clear disconnect between the current valuation and its long-term growth potential. "We remain very optimistic," he said. In addition, other Wall Street analysts are also looking forward to GTC. Jefferies analysts noted in the report that the GTC conference will be "another positive catalyst" to help solidify the performance benefits of the Blackwell platform and set the stage for continued growth in AI spending.
In Jingtai's view, NVIDIA's current valuation level may provide a rare layout opportunity:
Risks have been gradually digested: The negative impact of tariffs and recession has been partially priced in by the market, and Nvidia's valuation has more room to recover.
The catalytic effect of the GTC: the performance demonstration of the Blackwell platform and the disclosure of future technology roadmaps could be a catalyst for the stock price rally.
Although Nvidia's stock price is under pressure in the short term, its core competitiveness and long-term growth potential in the AI field are still worth paying attention to. The GTC conference may be an opportunity for the market to rediscover the value of NVIDIA, and investors can keep an eye on the event to take advantage of possible valuation repair opportunities.