Development prospects and development trends

Car companies invest in the research and development of intelligent chassis

In the context of software-defined vehicles, in recent years, some OEMs such as Great Wall, BYD, Geely, etc. have established subsidiaries or joint ventures to carry out self-research of intelligent chassis technology, and the R&D subsidiaries of car companies have begun to play the role of Tier0.5, and intelligent chassis will help 0EM enhance the competitiveness of automotive products and brand premium.

The intelligent chassis supply cooperation model has been reshaped, and the future chassis development is highly independent and controllable

Traditional automotive software development is highly dependent on suppliers, and automotive software development is based on the V-model of linear structure, and OEMs usually do not see development results until the end of the whole process, so the vehicle development cycle is long. With the intelligent transformation and upgrading of automobiles, OEMs have begun to apply the plan-oriented agile development concept for software development to achieve continuous integration and continuous delivery, which greatly shortens the vehicle development cycle.

Based on the shortening of the vehicle development cycle, the cooperation model of the intelligent chassis industry will be reshaped. Under the traditional supply relationship, OEMs directly purchase Tir1's integrated software and hardware products, and the cooperation model will be transformed into a model in which OEMs are responsible for architecture design and upper-level software development under the new supply relationship. In the new supply cooperation mode, the main engine claw can achieve efficient closed-loop iteration of intelligent chassis, realize rapid iterative development of software through vehicle-end data, and finally realize function optimization through OTA upgrade.

Brake-by-wire: The installation rate of EHB is growing rapidly, and EMB is gradually introduced with high-end intelligent driving

The penetration rate of EHB has increased rapidly, and the one-box solution has become the mainstream. According to the statistics of Zosi Automotive Research Institute, the EHB assembly rate of brake-by-wire in 2023H1 will reach 21%, and it is expected that the EHB assembly rate of brake-by-wire will reach 45% in 2025; In addition, the proportion of one-box online controlled brake EHB is increasing, and the proportion of one-box is expected to reach 90% by 2025.

L4 and above high-end intelligent driving is more inclined to be equipped with EMB, but it still faces two major problems: technology and mass production. With higher braking power, faster response speed, and more precise braking control, EMB is expected to become one of the ultimate forms of brake-by-wire. But because EMB has eliminated the brake pedal and brakes (disc or drum brakes) The mechanical connection between them has extremely high requirements for the reliability of the whole system; Moreover, the heat production is serious when working at high power, and there are problems of heat dissipation and electromagnetic interference.

BBW brake: EHB foreign capital leads, domestic bets on EMB

The localization rate of EHB has increased, but the share of EHB in the secondary supply position is not high. According to the number of matching models and suppliers, according to the data of supporting wire-controlled brake models disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology since 2022 (352-387 batches of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), Bosch's share accounts for 39% and Bethel's share accounts for 29%, forming an obvious double-leading pattern. By the 387th batch, more than half of the models equipped with BBW were introduced into domestic BBW suppliers (Bethel/Foday/Nathan, etc.), and domestic substitution is accelerating. Although domestic brake suppliers have entered the supporting system of most mainstream OEMs, most of them are currently introduced through secondary supply, and the actual supporting share is not high.

EMB has market opportunities for lane change and overtaking in China. For example, Xiaomi, Kaizhong Co., Ltd. and VIE Technology have a stake in Jiongyi Electronic Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., an innovative enterprise of brake-by-wire EMB, holding 15.27% of the shares. At present, some domestic start-ups also pay more attention to the research and development of EMB products, such as Globo and Likr Technology, which have made rapid progress in the mass production of EMB systems by virtue of their technical advantages and mass production experience of EHB products.

BBW: wet before dry or transitional form

In the front wet and dry structure, the front wheel as the main brake wheel adopts EHB, which can provide greater braking force and can provide failure backup to meet regulatory requirements; The rear wheels, which do not require much braking power, adopt EMB, which can reduce the length of the hydraulic line and realize the electronic parking function.

Wetting before drying can not only meet the redundancy requirements of L3 regulations, but also meet cost considerations, and is expected to become an excessive product form from EHB to EMB.

BBW: The EMB market is expected to increase rapidly

It is expected that EMB will be put into production in 2025 and rapidly increased by 2027, with a market size of 3.1 billion yuan and 13.8 billion yuan in 2027 and 2030, respectively, with a CAGR5 of 115% from 2025 to 2030.

Core assumptions:

•In 2025 and 2030, the penetration rate of brake-by-wire will reach 45% and 70%, respectively;

•In 2025 and 2030, the penetration rate of EMB online control will be 1% and 40%, respectively.

Steer-by-wire: leading overseas, catching up at home

Since the key components required for the steer-by-wire system are similar to those of EPS and are derived from the technology of EPS products, most of the current manufacturers with steer-by-wire capabilities are traditional Tier1 suppliers, including Bosch, ZF TRW, Nexteer, etc. At the same time, because the core components of the steering system, such as electric motors, electronic controls, and sensors, are also supplied by manufacturers, there are certain barriers, so there are relatively few domestic manufacturers that can cut into this field.

According to Nexteer's 2022Q3 investor communication materials, Nexteer was awarded the first steer-by-wire designation from the world's leading OEM in the first three quarters of 2022. According to Nexteer's 2023 semi-annual report, Nexteer received the second steer-by-wire designation from the world's leading OEM in the first half of 2023.

Domestically, in 2021, Great Wall released a coffee intelligent wire-controlled chassis research and development plan, planning to achieve mass production of the chassis system that fully integrates steer-by-wire, brake-by-wire, and wire-controlled suspension in 23 years. In October 22, NIO signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ZF to cooperate in the field of steer-by-wire, becoming the second car company in China to plan to officially mass-produce steer-by-wire technology. In 22 years, parts suppliers such as Bethel and Tuopu Group have also carried out research and development of steer-by-wire technology.

Steer-by-wire: the policy environment is untied and the market is growing steadily

The policy environment has been relaxed, and steer-by-wire has been accelerated: In January 2022, the new national standard for automobile steering was implemented, and the requirement that a full-power steering mechanism should not be installed was deleted; In April 2022, the draft of the "Steer-by-Wire Technology Roadmap" was released, with the overall goal of achieving the world's leading L3+ and L4+ autonomous driving steer-by-wire systems by 2025 and 2030, with the penetration rate of steer-by-wire reaching 5% and 30%.

Based on this penetration rate forecast, the steer-by-wire market space will reach 5.3 billion yuan and 27.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 38% from 2025 to 2030.

Intelligent suspension: bring considerable incremental value to the market

The application upgrade of air suspension further increases the value of the suspension system. Compared with the traditional suspension, the air suspension system replaces the steel spring with an air spring, and uses the compressibility of the air to achieve elastic effect and obtain better elastic characteristics. By replacing the electromagnetic shock absorber with an electronically controlled shock absorber, the damping characteristics can be adjusted, and the suspension softness and hardness can be actively controlled. An air supply unit was added to the engine compartment or trunk.

At the same time, the air suspension system also needs to add an ECU control unit to collect external information such as vehicle height uploaded by sensors, and make decisions based on it and send corresponding command signals. The new and upgraded parts have brought higher value to the air suspension system, and the current value of the entire air suspension system is more than 8,000 yuan, which is thousands of yuan higher than the traditional suspension.

Intelligent suspension: the United States and Europe took the lead, but local companies have occupied the main domestic market share

Air suspension originated in the United States and Europe, with a high degree of industrial maturity, and its core suppliers include Continental, Vibrator, WABCO, etc., which occupies a monopoly position in the market. Among them, in 2021, Continental's Changshu plant for automotive electronic systems was officially put into operation, mainly producing air suspension modules and assembling air supply systems, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 sets, realizing localized production in China, and the electronic suspension systems of Vibrator and WABCO are mainly used in commercial vehicles such as trucks and trailers.

The application difficulty of passenger cars is much higher than that of commercial vehicles, which provides an opportunity for domestic intelligent suspension manufacturers to catch up, and the representative companies include Baolong Technology, Kong Hui Automobile, Tuopu Group, etc.

Commercial vehicle air suspension mainly focuses on ensuring sufficient ground clearance of the vehicle and ensuring the smoothness of the vehicle, the requirements for vehicle comfort are relatively low, the performance requirements for air springs are lower than those of passenger cars, and the space is relatively large and convenient for the layout of the suspension, which makes Vibrator, WABCO and other enterprises still need to carry out a relatively long period of matching research and development and performance optimization, which also gives the domestic air spring and suspension system small assembly independent suppliers to accelerate the opportunity to catch up and seize the domestic market share.

According to data from Gasgoo, in 2023, two local suppliers, Konghui Technology, which ranks first in domestic installed capacity, and Baolong Technology, which ranks third, will occupy a total of more than 65% of the market share. By 2024, domestic manufacturers will account for a total of 104% of the top three.

Intelligent suspension: cost reduction promotes the increase of penetration

For the whole year of 2023, the sales volume of new vehicles equipped with air suspension as standard in China will be about 564,000 units, with a penetration rate of 2.7%; From January to April 2024, the sales of new vehicles equipped with air suspension as standard in China will be about 189,000 units, with a penetration rate of 3%, an increase of 40% year-on-year. At present, foreign capital still accounts for the main share of air supply units and shock absorbers in various components of domestic air suspension. With the further localization of air suspension components, the air suspension system is expected to further reduce costs and accelerate the penetration of models below 300,000 yuan.

Hypothesis:

In 2025 and 2030, the penetration rate of air suspension will be 6% and 21%.

In 2025 and 2030, the penetration rate of CDC shock absorbers will be 13% and 35%.

It is estimated that the air suspension market space will reach 12.3 billion yuan and 41 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030 respectively, with a compound growth rate of 27% from 2025 to 2030.

The CDC shock absorber market space will reach 100 billion yuan and 25.6 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 20% from 2025 to 2030.