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Equity Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Japan's Experience (2)
Time:2024-09-16

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Technological logic


|At the end of the 50s and 70s, Japan was dominated by foreign circulation and foreign trade

After World War II, Japan's economy was in ruins. In view of the characteristics of its own poor resources and narrow market, Japan pursues an "export-oriented" economy, focusing on the development of coal, steel, shipbuilding, and automobile industries, and exporting a large number of labor-intensive products such as textiles to earn foreign exchange in exchange for funds for national construction.


Japan's "export-oriented" policy has been very successful. The scale of Japan's foreign trade has continued to grow, and foreign trade has changed from a deficit country to a surplus country. During this period, Japan's GDP maintained an average annual growth rate of more than double digits, making it a low-middle-income country to a high-income country.


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|The National Income Doubling Plan Helped Japan's Domestic Circulation Succeed (1961-1970)

In the 50s of the last century, after experiencing a period of rapid growth of "Jimmu Boom" and "Iwato Boom", Japan's economy grew substantially, but it also exposed problems such as overcapacity, generally low income levels, income disparities, and high unemployment rates, and excessive dependence on foreign trade and uneven industrial structure also restricted Japan's long-term economic development.


Against this backdrop, the Cabinet led by Isato Ikeda formulated the National Income Doubling Plan, the core of which is to expand domestic demand, which requires increasing public investment, adjusting the industrial structure, and reducing the gap between rich and poor. In order to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and effectively improve the level of national consumption, the Japan government has continuously raised the minimum wage, improved social security, promoted the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and alleviated regional imbalances.


The "National Income Doubling Plan" achieved good results, and most of the cake of social wealth growth was enjoyed by the people, and in the 70s, a large number of middle-class groups appeared in Japan, after which the Gini coefficient and unemployment rate decreased significantly, and the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth increased significantly.


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|After the external circulation is broken, it will turn into a "science and technology country"

Japan export-oriented economy once enabled it to maintain a high economic growth rate, but this also led to more and more intense trade frictions with United States-dominated Western countries, especially after entering the 80s, United States repeatedly imposed sanctions on Japan in the fields of automobiles, semiconductors, telecommunications, finance, etc., due to excessive dependence on the United States market, Japan was forced to compromise and voluntarily restrict exports, and the economic model dominated by external circulation was unsustainable. In response to this problem, Japan's economic policy began to shift from a "trade country" to a "technology country", and the economy began to switch to internal circulation.


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|The winning logic of technology stocks - going overseas to find increments (photovoltaics?) Energy storage? Car? )

Although Japan's foreign trade is restricted, multinational companies still buck the trend to enhance the global competitiveness of the industry and seize market share. For example, Shin-Etsu Chemical ranks first in the world in its semiconductor silicon materials business, with a perennial silicon wafer market share of 28-30%, and JSR's share in the photoresist market also ranks first in the world.


Japan companies have been able to maintain a high market share in the global market.

For example, in 1992, eight new projects were added to Japan's Science and Technology Promotion Adjustment Fund, the first three of which belonged to materials science, reflecting the importance that Japan society attached to the field of materials science at that time.


The second is to open up the upstream and downstream of the industry and form a monopoly in the entire industrial chain, such as a series of OLED screen components such as "evaporation machine - high-precision evaporation mask plate - super invar board", all monopolized by Japan enterprises, so as to enhance the advantages of all enterprises in the industrial chain.


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|Technology Stocks Winning Logic - Invisible Champion of Small Track (Upstream Subdivision Track)

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The winning logic of technology stocks - pay attention to new needs and tap the blue ocean track (AI? eVTOL? )

Since the 90s, Japan's working population has decreased due to the aging and declining birthrate, which has led Japan to focus on improving technology and increasing total factor productivity to maintain economic growth, of which automated production is the most demanding.


According to the Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, citing data from the Japan Robotics Association and World Robotics, in 1990 Japan robots accounted for 88% of the world's supply share and 75% of the demand share, making it a robot superpower, and throughout the 90s, Japan's robot market share has always remained above 80%. This led to the birth of Fanuc, a leader in the field of automated production in Japan.


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|The winning logic of technology stocks - policy monopoly of the domestic market (military industry?) Semiconductor Security)

The 90s were a period of rapid development of communication technology, and the Japan government adopted product design standards that were different from international standards, changing direction to protect the domestic market, but detached from the global industrial chain. For example, in the computer field, in 1982, Japan Electric NEC released the PC-9800 to develop the Japanese input standard, but banned the international DOS operating system at that time to be compatible with it, Japanese processing hindered IBM and other overseas brand computers, making NEC monopolize the domestic market in Japan from the mid-80s of the 20th century to 1997.


In the field of communication equipment, Japan has developed its own PDC standard instead of adopting the GSM standard that is commonly used in the international system when setting up 2G networks. This made it impossible for foreign mobile phone manufacturers to enter Japan in the 90s. To a certain extent, this has protected local enterprises, so that high-quality companies such as Sony and Panasonic have been born in these fields.


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