Application scenarios and business models

Humanoid robots expand and partially replace traditional industrial/service/special application scenarios

Humanoid robots have obvious advantages in flexible operation ability and interaction ability, and "general intelligence" is expected to expand and partially replace traditional robot application scenarios.

Compared with industrial robots and service robots, the advantages of humanoid robots are mainly reflected in:

1) The advantages of flexible operation are obvious, and there is still a lot of room for development in the ToB manufacturing industry. Industrial robots and service robots usually perform repetitive and specific tasks for specific application scenarios. For humanoid robots, the action mode is closer to that of humans, and can carry out more subtle industrial operations, which are widely used in flexible production and other fields in the manufacturing industry.

2) It has an advanced perception system, with enhanced independent decision-making ability & interaction ability, and has greater application potential in the ToC side. Humanoid robots are similar to humans in morphological structure & perception systems, and can more naturally adapt to human-designed environments and tools, and perform diverse and complex operations. In the context of the continuous interpretation of AI large models, the generalization ability of humanoid robots continues to increase, and the application potential of consumer terminals such as home care and livelihood services is greater, which will completely open up the application space of humanoid robots.

The field of automobile manufacturing will be the first step of application

The automobile manufacturing industry is a natural large market for robot applications. The automobile manufacturing process is cumbersome, and at the same time, the repetition is high & the standardization is strong, and the "machine for people" is easy to produce scale effect, laying the foundation for the large-scale application of robots. Originally used in automotive production lines, industrial robots are now widely used in body welding, painting, assembly, and processing.

Humanoid robots are expected to further increase the unmanned rate of automobile factories. For the delicate and tedious work of flexible work such as body interior assembly and final assembly, the industrial robotic arm has strong application limitations and is still highly dependent on manual labor.

Compared with the structured scenarios and standardized operations of traditional industrial robots, humanoid robots are more autonomous and versatile, and have great application potential in assembly workshops and other refined operation fields.

Automobile companies at home and abroad have increased their weight, and the application of the automotive field has accelerated

1) From the perspective of industrial layout, Tesla, Xiaopeng, BMW, Honda, Toyota, BYD and other domestic and foreign car companies have increased the humanoid robot track, which reflects the necessity and feasibility of the application of humanoid robots in the field of automobile manufacturing.

2) From the perspective of industrialization progress, in February 2024, UBTECH's industrial version of the humanoid robot Walker In January 2024, Tesla is conducting generalized training on battery pack assembly for Optimus in the video, and humanoid robots have begun to officially enter the automobile factory, and industrialization is just around the corner.

3) Taking Tesla as an example, there are 140,000 employees worldwide at the end of 2023, half of which are engaged in manufacturing positions, if one humanoid robot replaces two workers, when the penetration rate of humanoid robots is 20%, 50% and 100% respectively, the corresponding humanoid robot demand can reach 0.86, 2.15 and 43,100 units. If we take into account the potential needs of other automobile manufacturing enterprises such as BYD, the demand space for humanoid robots in the field of automobile manufacturing is broader.

The current automation rate in the field of consumer electronics is lower, and there is more room for growth in the future

Consumer electronics has higher requirements for fine processing, and the penetration rate of superimposed "machine for people" is lower, and the growth space of humanoid robots is much greater than that of automobile manufacturing. Compared with the automobile manufacturing industry, the production of consumer electronics has a high degree of standardization, but due to the higher processing precision requirements, it is difficult for industrial robots to achieve large-scale application, and they rely more on manual operation of automation equipment, and the demand for manpower is still high. Specifically:

1) In many fine links such as testing, assembly, and packaging sections, such as dispensing, screws, and picking up small parts, we cannot completely rely on automated equipment, and are still highly dependent on manual labor.

2) For automation equipment, it is generally only for specific application links, and cannot be migrated in the production process, and even the parameters of the new generation of products need to be re-customized, the sunk cost is high, and the advantages of flexible and coordinated operation of humanoid robots can be brought into play.

From the perspective of substitution space, if we only take Lixun Precision and Goertek as examples, the number of manufacturing personnel at the end of 2022 will be as high as 200,000 and 60,000 respectively, with a total of 260,000 people, which is much larger than Tesla, which further reflects the high demand for manpower in the consumer electronics industry. With the gradual penetration of humanoid robots in the consumer electronics industry, it will further open up the growth space of humanoid robots in the ToB field.

The ToC end market will completely open up the growth space of humanoid robots

On the basis of the ToB market, humanoid robots have the potential to continue to expand in the ToC field, which will completely open up the growth space. The biggest advantage of humanoid robots is the versatility brought by their humanoid limb structure and movement mode, and with the continuous evolution of their sensitivity and interactivity, they can be gradually applied to the ToC end in the future.

Taking Tesla as an example, in a video released in January 2024, Optimus demonstrated the skill of folding clothes, further verifying that industry leaders are already actively preparing for ToC expansion. In the future, it may break through the limitations of the single application scenario of service robots and enter the ToC fields such as elderly care, housekeeping services, and entertainment companionship.

Humanoid robot commercialization path: 0-1 is the key, 1-N is expected to be significantly faster than electric vehicles

In the medium and long term, compared with new energy electric vehicles, we are optimistic about the rapid increase of Optimus's "1 to N" volume. From the perspective of industrialization progress, Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries exceeded 10,000 for the first time in 2013, achieving 22,000 deliveries, 100,000 deliveries in 2017, 1 million in 2022, and 1,808,600 in 2023, with a CAGR of 81% during the delivery period from 2012 to 2023.

Huawei established a robot company, Tesla Optimus mass production can be expected, you can see that the track ceiling is undoubtedly high, the market is entangled in whether it can achieve a 0-1 breakthrough, once the product is amazing, you can look forward to 1 million units-10 million units-100 million units of non-linear growth.

Humanoid robot industry business model: Tesla & NVIDIA

In the future, humanoid robot industry companies are likely to form two business models and three major factions:

The first type is the self-developed companies of the whole industry chain represented by Tesla. The core components such as operation control algorithms and actuators are self-developed, and it is expected that large manufacturers such as Toyota and Xiaomi will also adopt this model.

The second type is the platform companies represented by NVIDIA. NVIDIA provides a three-piece set of "processor + platform + development tools" to help robot companies achieve general intelligence faster and more economically. Including Boston Dynamics, Collaborative Robotics、Covariant、Sanctuary It is expected that AI large model companies will adopt this model in the future to provide integrated solutions including robot AI large models for robot companies, similar to Huawei Wenjie on the automotive side.

The third type is the start-up represented by Unitree Technology, which is the core of system integration and user experience.