Recently, Baidu's self-driving travel platform Radish Kuairun has become popular, and Baidu is making great progress this time, claiming that Radish Kuairun is expected to break even in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and will be fully profitable in 2025. In the past two days, the concept of unmanned driving has continued to attract market attention, and many stocks have risen again.

|Carrot Run's commercialization

At present, the service area of Carrot Express has exceeded 3,000 square kilometers, covering a population of 7.7 million, providing unmanned travel services for nearly half of Wuhan citizens. The first batch of sixth-generation unmanned vehicles delivered will be put into use in Wuhan from now on, and the deployment of 1,000 unmanned vehicles will be completed in Wuhan within this year.

Carrot Express has opened manned test operation services in 11 cities, and has carried out fully unmanned autonomous driving service tests in Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. According to Baidu's first quarterly report, as of April 19, the cumulative number of service orders of Radish Express exceeded 6 million; In the first quarter, about 826,000 rides were provided, a year-on-year increase of 25%.

It is expected that with the increase in the number of deliveries in the future, the operating costs of Radish Express will be significantly reduced, and the scale effect may be reflected, which is expected to achieve the profitability of the driverless online car-hailing business model. At this stage, there are three mature conditions for self-driving to change the taxi industry: mature technology, reduced cost per vehicle, policy and infrastructure support, the three conditions are in place, and the driverless challenge to the taxi industry has been theoretically feasible, and the successful business model of Radish Express in Wuhan is expected to be replicated in other places.

The true driverless travel mode is near

In terms of policy, Beijing's self-driving cars on the road will usher in legislative guarantees. According to Beijing Daily, recently, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology solicited opinions on the "Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations (Draft for Comments)", which intends to support the use of autonomous vehicles in urban public tram passenger transport, online car-hailing, car rental and other urban travel services.

In Shanghai, at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference on July 4, four companies received the first batch of Shanghai driverless intelligent networked vehicle demonstration application licenses. On July 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Transport and other five departments officially announced that China will carry out the pilot of the integrated application of intelligent networked vehicles in 20 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Shenyang.

The application prospects are bright, and more companies are beginning to embrace Robotaxi (driverless ride-hailing). Some companies predict that in the next 5 to 10 years, China will become the world's largest market for highly autonomous mobility services.

In addition to Baidu, more companies are also laying out

The relevant person in charge of Pony.ai, an autonomous driving company, mentioned that Pony.ai has fully equipped the technical foundation needed to meet the large-scale commercialization of L4 fully unmanned Robotape. Fully unmanned vehicles can easily cope with complex urban road conditions and various extreme scenarios, and have achieved all-weather normalized operation in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Pony.ai believes that since 2024, the commercialization process of autonomous driving will be more comprehensively accelerated, and in the next 5 to 10 years, China will become the world's largest highly autonomous driving mobility service market.

Mobility companies are also embracing Robotaxi. On July 10, Ruqi Travel was successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is the first time that a Robotaxi operating company has landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In the prospectus, Ruqi Travel introduced that the company officially started the development and commercialization of Robotaxi in 2021, and has now provided commercial hybrid operation of manned online car-hailing and Robotaxi services in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

T3 Mobility believes that large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi may come within five years. Cui Dayong, CEO of T3 Mobility, mentioned in a public speech a few days ago that if the cost of fully unmanned autonomous vehicles is less than 400,000 yuan, it is an inflection point for commercialization, and the goal is 100,000 units within five years. The ability to iterate on technology and the ability to manufacture is very possible.

Previously, Musk announced on social platforms that Tesla will release Robotaxi on August 8, 2024, and Musk believes that if fully autonomous driving is realized, the vehicle itself can be shared among many users, which can increase the use value of the vehicle by 5 times. This triggered a sharp rise in Tesla's stock price, and a number of investment banks raised their price targets for Tesla.

Jingtai Viewpoint|Analysis of the investment direction of autonomous driving

The investment direction of autonomous mobility platforms is mainly influenced by several key factors, including technology maturity, market demand, policy and regulatory environment, and the feasibility of the business model. Here are some specific investment directions:

1. Technology research and development

Perception and decision-making systems: Invest in more advanced sensors (e.g., lidar, cameras, millimeter-wave radars) and AI algorithms to improve the vehicle's perception of the environment and decision-making capabilities.

High-precision mapping and positioning technology: High-precision maps and real-time positioning are key to autonomous driving, requiring continuous investment to maintain map updates and accuracy.

Software & Data Processing: The large amount of data generated by autonomous driving systems requires efficient data processing and analysis capabilities, and investing in cloud computing and edge computing technologies is necessary.

2. Infrastructure construction

Intelligent transportation systems: Invest in smart road infrastructure, such as traffic lights, road signs, charging stations, etc., to support the operation of autonomous vehicles.

Test & Validation Facilities: Establish dedicated test sites and simulation environments to validate the safety and performance of autonomous vehicles.

3. Exploration of business models

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS): Invest in mobility service platforms that integrate public transit, shared mobility, and autonomous driving technologies.

Robotaxi and Robovan: Focused on the development and operation of robotaxis and cargo vehicles to provide on-demand mobility and logistics services.

Fleet Management & Operations: Invest in fleet management software and services to optimize the scheduling and maintenance of autonomous vehicles.

4. Green energy and sustainability

Electrification and energy efficiency: Combining electric vehicle technology and autonomous driving to drive greener mobility.

Investing in an autonomous mobility platform requires not only a focus on technological advancements, but also an entire ecosystem, including legal, social, economic, and environmental considerations. As the technology matures and the market expands, the direction of investment in these areas is likely to evolve.