On June 14, the People's Bank of China released a report on financial statistics for May 2024. At the end of May, the stock of social financing was 391.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. Among them, the balance of loans issued to the real economy was 245.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In May, the scale of social financing increased by 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 508.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy have been further improved.
From the perspective of investment direction, more credit resources will flow to key areas and weak links of the national economy. Green loans, inclusive small and micro loans, and medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a high growth rate of about 20%. Among them, the balance of loans to high-tech, "specialized, special and new", and science and technology small and medium-sized enterprises continued to maintain double-digit growth. Lending rates remain at historically low levels.
New RMB loans fell within market expectations
According to the data, from January to May, RMB loans increased by 11.14 trillion yuan, with a reasonable growth in total volume, and there is still stamina to support the real economy. At the same time, the pace of credit allocation by financial institutions has become more balanced.
The reasonable return of the growth rate after the "squeeze of water" in credit supply is conducive to the sustained recovery of the real economy. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has guided financial institutions to revitalize the stock of credit, "squeeze water" and "remove fat" from financial data, and although the credit growth rate has slowed down, it is still compatible with the high-quality development of the economy.
New RMB loans fell within market expectations in May. Financial institutions still lack sufficient demand reserves for credit provision, and after the optimization of the quarterly GDP accounting method, the phenomenon of inflated deposits under the supervision of local governments has been alleviated. Against this backdrop, new loans in May were still close to the trillion yuan level, which is not small.
Localized bonds and the risk disposal of small and medium-sized financial institutions also had a downward effect on the new RMB loans in May, and if these factors are restored, the new loans in the month were actually higher than the same period last year.
It is worth mentioning that the current credit structure continues to be optimized, and more credit resources flow to key areas and weak links of the national economy. According to the data, at the end of May, the balance of loans to high-tech, "specialized, special and new", and science and technology small and medium-sized enterprises was 14.77 trillion yuan, 4.11 trillion yuan, and 2.68 trillion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, 15.9%, and 19.2%; the balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 31.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; The balance of agriculture-related loans of all calibers was 60.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The growth rate of the above loans was higher than the growth rate of various loans in the same period, and the proportion of all loans further increased.
There is room and constraint for interest rate reduction
Since the beginning of this year, China's interest rate level has continued to maintain a steady and declining trend. According to the data, in the first quarter of this year, the interest rate on newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans were 3.73% and 3.69% respectively, a significant year-on-year decline. Since the second quarter, lending rates have remained at historically low levels.
5月企业贷款和个人住房贷款利率分别在3.7%和3.6%左右，同比下降超过0.2个和0.5个百分点。同时，随着经济恢复向好，物价也在温和回升，实际利率水平也会继续回落。
当前我国政策利率较低，货币政策对实体经济的支持是稳固的。学术界基于不同的假设条件对我国中性利率进行估算，主流观点认为当前中性利率水平在2%左右。
央行公开市场操作7天期逆回购利率保持在1.8%的较低水平，考虑通胀因素后的实际政策利率不到2%，仍低于中性利率，货币政策继续保持对实体经济的稳固支持力度。
利率下调仍有空间但也面临内外部约束。事实上，今年以来，央行已多次公开发声表示货币政策仍有空间，但前期政策效果还在显现，未来也会结合形势变化继续做好逆周期调节。客观来说，进一步降息面临内外部“双重约束”。
内部方面，银行净息差继续收窄。利润是当前银行补充资本的重要来源，净息差继续收窄会影响银行可持续服务实体经济的能力。
外部方面，人民币汇率也是需要考虑的因素。2023年以来，中美利差持续倒挂，人民币汇率面临贬值压力。目前中美利差倒挂已达220个基点，人民币对美元汇率能继续保持在7.2元左右实属不易。利率调整也需要考虑对汇率的影响。
Credit growth will shift to connotative development
In the context of the "crowding out of water" of deposit products and the diversification of wealth management methods, it is difficult for the growth rate of money supply to pick up quickly in the future, and the People's Bank of China's recent efforts to deal with the problem of "capital idling" will also restrict the delivery of some loans and slow down the derivation of deposits.
Subsequently, with the timely strengthening of monetary policy, the release of the effect of fiscal policy, and the trade-in policy of real estate and consumer goods to support bulk consumption, the demand side is expected to gradually improve, and the increase in credit will increase accordingly. Driven by the low interest rate environment and the combination of policies such as stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption, residents' consumption and credit tendencies may continue to recover steadily, but the strength and sustainability are still mainly affected by long-term variables such as employment and income.
From a longer-term perspective, as the economy becomes lighter and the demand for credit weakens, the regulator will focus on guiding the credit expansion model to change from "high growth" to "high quality", and credit growth should change from extension to connotative development. Financial institutions need to actively seek changes, tap potential and effective demand, increase support around key areas and weak links, and provide assistance to new drivers of energy.
