The latest news, the AI war between Google Gemini and Microsoft Copilot continues to escalate, the latest news is that OpenAI is expected to launch a new ChatGPT-based search product on May 9 this year, further challenging Google's traditional search giant.

Will ChatGPT disrupt search engines?

At present, ChatGPT will not subvert search engines, but it will be alternative to a certain extent. Compared with keyword search, users use ChatGPT to obtain information in the form of conversations. ChatGPT may not be the best way to acquire knowledge, but the best way to stimulate the mind.

The world's knowledge system is not all synergistic, and there are many contradictions and conflicts in it, which require a certain degree of synthesis if they are to be applied. If we use ChatGPT purely to gain knowledge, it means that the amount of reading will increase dramatically. As a result, search engines, conversational interactions, recommendations, and portals will coexist for a long time to come.

From the perspective of end users, the current business model of search engine bidding ranking has seriously affected the user experience, and the experience of obtaining content from ChatGPT has been greatly improved. Since the answer is generative and the business logic has completely changed, the likelihood of disruption is high.

Therefore, the possibility of being subverted is relatively high, and Google should have a sense of crisis. ChatGPT can make the three uses of the current search engine better and more comfortable: to obtain system knowledge, to obtain practical experience, and to obtain inspiration, to help people learn better and improve efficiency.

What impact will it have on the market?

Changing competitive landscape: Given Google's current dominance in the global search engine market, the launch of the ChatGPT search engine may first raise market concerns about increased competition. Google has about 90% of the market share, and a ChatGPT search engine based on advanced AI technology that can provide a novel search experience may attract users to try it and potentially divert a portion of Google's user base.

Innovations in user experience: ChatGPT is known for its conversational interactions and the ability to generate content, suggesting that new search engines may offer a more personalized and interactive search experience. Users may no longer just get a list of links, but directly to understood, organized answers, a change that could redefine the way people access information.

Technology paradigm shift: Traditional search engines rely on keyword matching and web page indexing, while ChatGPT search engines, if they can effectively integrate technologies such as natural language processing, machine learning, and reinforcement learning with human feedback, may promote the development of search engine technology in a more intelligent and contextual direction, and promote the technological upgrading of the entire industry.

What business opportunities will it bring?

On top of ChatGPT, there is an opportunity to make a next-generation operating system. The current operating system based on traditional apps is very solid, and we see an opportunity that many inherent apps will be replaced by AI, and the underlying large model can better understand user intent, and the combination of the two can create a new type of backbone product. This product can influence the way humans learn and improve the efficiency of people's learning.

The big improvement for ChatGPT is that as an AI, it also has a certain emotional intelligence. From understanding human intentions, to taking over human operations, it essentially becomes a new workforce. In the future, we may not need to learn tools like Excel anymore, we just need to tell it what you need, and it will tell the user the answer through complex calculations, just like a 24-hour online brother.

Secondly, as more and more information dimensions are required for interaction, in the future, we may only need to wear a hardware that can collect information during working hours, and then communicate with ChatGPT at any time. The business value behind this is huge, because it can greatly improve the business effect, shorten the path to business monetization, and it can even take over all your operations and help you make decisions.

How long will it take for ChatGPT to come out in China?

For large domestic companies, what should be seen is whether they want to do it or not, and whether they dare to do it. For large manufacturers, the question may be whether it is worth doing. Large companies generally hold their heads high, and because of their large investment and focus on financial issues, they may be constrained by the landing effect, and dare not take more risks and make more attempts.

The investment in the underlying large model is too large, and at present, only large manufacturers have the opportunity. And, of course, the government's attitude towards generative AI and how much it costs to control it. Therefore, at present, it is more inclined to have long-term technology accumulation, and at the same time can be more suitable for the Chinese environment.