Recently, the focus of the global space community was once again on Elon Musk's SpaceX, which successfully conducted the third integrated flight test (IFT-3) of the highly-anticipated Starship project on March 14, 2024. Although the final test flight results did not fully meet expectations, the rocket's performance has improved compared to the previous two test launches, and Starship has not only flown farther and longer, but has also successfully completed more "milestone" test missions, and is one step closer to SpaceX's goal of sending people to the moon and Mars.

| The third test flight lasted longer than the previous two

In the past year, SpaceX has conducted two Starship test flights, one in April and the other in November. But unfortunately, both test launches ended in rocket explosions. For example, in its first flight in April last year, the rocket exploded a few minutes after liftoff.

After careful evaluation of those initial tests, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Wednesday approved SpaceX's third test launch, an affirmation of SpaceX's technology and design improvements.

During this test flight, the Starship flight lasted about an hour, and the fly in the ointment was that the Starship did not land on the surface of the Indian Ocean as originally planned. In the final stages of the test, it disintegrated as it flew over the Indian Ocean, ending the test mission ahead of schedule.

Building on the second test flight, the third test flight will attempt more targets such as opening/closing hatches in space, in-flight fuel transfer demonstrations, re-ignition of Raptor engines for the first time in space. Fuel transfer is a critical technology in space missions, such as traveling to Mars, which may require refueling or refueling during the voyage.

The long-term goal of the Starship project is to develop a rocket that can be used multiple times to reduce the cost of space travel and send humans to the moon, Mars, and even further space destinations, fulfilling the long-term vision of human survival on other planets.

Although the final results of this test flight did not fully meet expectations, this test flight provided valuable data and experience for SpaceX, which will continue to analyze the results of this test flight to optimize the rocket design and improve the performance and reliability of the rocket. For example, after the failure of its first flight in April 2023, SpaceX made more than 1,000 modifications to Starship.

Moreover, the test flight did not carry any personnel. SpaceX's top leadership has previously stressed the need for hundreds of flight tests of Starship missions before Starship can carry any crew.

This is because manned missions such as sending humans to Mars require extremely high performance and reliability of rocket systems, and any small technical flaw can lead to mission failure or pose a serious threat to crew safety. Therefore, SpaceX plans to gain experience through a large number of unmanned test flights, continuously optimize the design, and will not consider manned missions until the system meets sufficient safety and reliability standards.

| The most powerful rocket ever

Although the test flight did not end perfectly, from a practical point of view, the test flight marked a major success. Compared to the experience of the previous two test flights, SpaceX has made many improvements to the rocket.

On April 20, 2023, Starship was ignited and launched for the first time in high anticipation. About four minutes after liftoff, the starship and thrusters failed to separate, causing the starship to explode and disintegrate in the air, and the launch failed. Not blowing up the launch pad is Musk's greatest blessing.

Over seven months, after more than 1,000 changes, on November 18, 2023, Starship attempted its second launch. At the time of launch, all 33 engines started normally and took off smoothly. But 3 minutes later, there was an explosion on the live stream. SpaceX said the launch failed when the second-stage rocket malfunctioned and was forced to trigger its self-destruct system.

Every test launch of the starship has attracted the attention of countless people. Every time the starship successfully pushed forward, it also showed an incomparable sense of oppression. This feeling of oppression comes from three main points:

1. Ever, the biggest and strongest

Starship is the largest aircraft ever built by mankind, with a take-off mass of about 5,000 tons and a take-off thrust of 7,500 tons, both of which are the largest in human history. It can achieve a reusable capacity of no less than 150 tons in low earth orbit, surpassing the current rockets of various countries around the world in one fell swoop, and is the strongest rocket in human history.

2. Fully reusable

With a total height of about 120 meters and a diameter of about 9 meters, the rocket consists of two parts, namely the first-stage booster "Superheavy" and the second-stage spacecraft "Starship". The target of the starship is a fully reusable rocket. In other words, both the first-stage booster and the second-stage spacecraft must be recovered. Not only must it be recyclable, but it must also be cheap. Starship uses stainless steel as the main material, which has higher strength and durability compared to alloy materials, and at the same time has a lower cost.

3. Single-core stage multi-engine parallel

Bundling multiple engines to the same stage (core stage) of a rocket, and these engines work in parallel to provide thrust to send the rocket into space, known as single-core stage multiple launch parallel. In the history of astronautics, strap-on rockets do not have a good reputation. The former Soviet Union's N-1 heavy launch vehicle fired 4 shots and 4 bombs, which made everyone have little confidence in this road.

Musk plans to guarantee 6 times in 2024 and strive to launch 9 Starships. According to this plan, Starship is likely to be finalized in one to two years, and then NASA's manned space tests will begin in 2027. With a strong industrial system, once the Starship is finalized, the high-quality near-Earth orbit resources will be quickly occupied by it, and the time window left for competitors is shrinking step by step.

| Market impact and investment value

SpaceX's continued innovation and technological prowess continue to enhance its competitiveness in the commercial space market. As the Starship project continues to make substantial progress, SpaceX is expected to further consolidate its leading position in the field of heavy-lift launch vehicles, especially Musk's plan for the year to increase the carrying capacity by about 50% by optimizing the Falcon launch vehicle series, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of more potential customers, including government agencies, scientific research institutions, and companies looking for efficient space transportation solutions.

At the same time, investors are keeping a close eye on SpaceX's input-output ratio on the Starship program and its commercialization potential. Despite the high cost and uncertainty of test flights, each test flight is a critical step on the way to the low-cost reusable spacecraft of the future, a business model that, if mature, could revolutionize the cost structure of the space economy and usher in a new era of commercial spaceflight.

The dual implications of technology and business cannot be ignored

For investors, SpaceX's value lies not only in its existing launch service business, but also in its forward-looking and disruptive innovation in the future layout of the space industry. The long-term success of the Starship project will directly affect the overall valuation of SpaceX, which in turn may drive investment enthusiasm for the entire space industry chain.

Considering that the Starship test flight did not achieve all the goals, the technical strength and determination to solve the problem showed the market to increase confidence in its future success. Therefore, when evaluating SpaceX's risk-return ratio, investors should deeply understand its technology research and development path, market demand forecast, and changes in the policy environment, and make decisions based on the company's long-term strategic planning.

In conclusion, although the third test flight of SpaceX Starship suffered a setback, the technical and commercial implications brought by it cannot be ignored. As an industry leader, SpaceX's resilience and ability to innovate in the face of challenges make it an attractive long-term investment target that deserves the attention and support of investors based on a careful assessment of risks:

Investors with a long-term perspective should take a long-term investment perspective, as the SpaceX Starship program represents cutting-edge space exploration technology and deep space transportation systems, which have long development cycles and high risks, but have great potential for long-term returns.

DiversificationConsidering that the SpaceX Starship project is a key part of the overall SpaceX company's strategic layout, investors can diversify their portfolios and diversify risks by investing directly in SpaceX's equity or indirectly investing in related companies that work closely with SpaceX.

Focusing on the starship project in the upstream and downstream industry chain requires a large number of advanced materials, manufacturing technologies and satellite communications and other related support, investors can pay attention to high-quality enterprises in these industry chains, such as new material suppliers, precision instrument manufacturers and satellite network service providers.