Recently, good news has come from the domestic satellite industry! On February 3, 2024, 11 satellites were launched from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center via the Long March 2C carrier rocket. The rocket successfully launched all satellites into the designated orbit, and all satellites were in normal condition, resulting in a successful launch mission. What is the use of this future travel constellation? So many giants around the world are rushing to build constellations, what are the barriers and challenges?
01 | One Arrow 11 Satellite successfully launched into orbit. All 11 satellites launched into orbit belong to the Geely Future Travel Constellation. This constellation was launched by the Spacetime Universe and is the world's first commercial communication, navigation, and remote sensing integrated constellation. On June 2, 2022, Spacetime Universe successfully launched the first orbit of the constellation with 9 satellites in one arrow, forming the first orbital plane of the constellation. The 11 satellites will form the second orbital plane of the constellation. According to the plan, by 2025, they will complete the network deployment of all 72 satellites in the first phase of the constellation, achieving global real-time data communication services. Going forward, it will be expanded to Phase II of the constellation with 168 satellites, which will achieve global centimeter level high-precision positioning services. In recent years, the satellite industry has developed rapidly and the attention to it has continued to rise. At the beginning of the new year, Time and Space Dao Yu won the first prize, not only adding joy to the upcoming Spring Festival, but also opening the prelude to a new year of commercial aerospace in China.
02 | What is the use of future travel constellations? The reason why satellite constellations have become popular is mainly driven by demand. After decades of development, ground communication networks have formed a relatively large scale. However, for remote areas such as deserts, mountainous areas, and forests, as well as non terrestrial scenes such as oceans and skies, ground networks still have shortcomings and cannot meet the needs of human activities. A constellation composed of multiple satellites can provide comprehensive spatial coverage, effectively compensate for the shortcomings of ground networks, and meet the seamless connectivity needs of human beings in the digital age. The rise of high-throughput (HTS) and low orbit (LEO) technologies has created new opportunities for the landing of the satellite industry. The communication, navigation (positioning), and remote sensing capabilities provided by satellite constellations can well meet user needs in many fields such as transportation, outdoor exploration, transportation logistics, aviation and maritime, energy and mineral resources, urban governance, emergency rescue, etc. The commercial value of satellite applications is rapidly increasing. The competition and layout around the satellite industry have only just begun.
03 | What is the strength of domestic constellations? Different types of constellations have different performance indicators and requirements. For commercial satellite constellations, more attention is paid to core commercial application indicators, such as remote sensing satellite constellations focusing more on specific area revisit time, frequency constraints, etc; Navigation satellite constellations pay more attention to navigation accuracy, coverage weight, etc; Communication satellite constellations pay more attention to link characteristics, coverage weights, and so on. In the commercial satellite industry chain, high barriers, multiple links, and strong complexity are significant characteristics. Therefore, startup companies often focus on a specific niche field. However, the formation of domestic low orbit satellite constellations is not easy and faces various challenges. Firstly, mass production of satellites is required to meet the requirements for rapid construction of constellations in the short term; Secondly, it is a highly reliable and low-cost carrier capacity that can safely send satellites into space, meeting the needs of constellation construction; Thirdly, the most crucial thing is the implementation of the business model, otherwise the huge investment in constellation construction cannot be sustained for a long time. With the successful deployment of two orbital planes, Spacetime has become the only commercial space enterprise in China to independently build and operate commercial satellite constellations, following Iridium, Globalstar, Orbcom, OneWeb, and SpaceX. After the successful deployment and testing of the second orbit satellite, the constellation can smoothly enter the engineering application stage, preparing comprehensively for the launch of the third orbital surface of the spacetime spacecraft in the second half of 2024. At that time, the spacetime spacecraft will officially launch commercial services worldwide. The Spacetime Universe will complete the deployment of 72 satellites in the first phase of the constellation within 2 years, achieving global real-time data communication services. According to the current plan of the Spacetime Universe, Phase II of the constellation will expand to 168 satellites, achieving global centimeter level high-precision positioning services, and providing highly reliable and low-cost application services for human travel, such as autonomous driving, intelligent networking, and consumer electronics.
04 | Competing in the trillion dollar market, China's commercial aerospace industry has accumulated and developed. From the perspective of market size, China's commercial aerospace industry has begun to take shape, and the Chinese commercial aerospace market is growing rapidly. Third party market institutions predict that from 2023 to 2028, the commercial aerospace industry will enter a golden period of development, and the market size in China alone will reach 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025. The government provides policy support. At the end of 2023, commercial aerospace was first included in the Central Economic Work Conference. In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to lead the construction of a modern industrial system through technological innovation, and to create strategic emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low altitude economy, opening up new tracks for future industries. Industry data shows that the number of satellites that can be accommodated in low orbit space worldwide is approximately 100000. More and more countries are launching low orbit constellation plans. Overseas companies such as Starlink and Oneweb have planned thousands of low orbit satellite constellations. At present, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit has exceeded 5600. The construction of commercial low orbit satellite constellations in China is still in its early stages. China will have 30000 to 40000 low orbit satellites launched in the future. Under the influence of comprehensive factors, the demand for manufacturing and launching low orbit satellites in China is expected to enter an explosive period of exponential growth in the next five years. This is undoubtedly good news for the entire industry and leading companies like Time and Space Daoyu. At present, there is still a 90% gap in the annual production capacity of domestic microsatellites, and mass production of satellites is crucial, and this gap is the main market for commercial satellite companies.
05 | Domestic start-up companies also face some challenges. In Jingtai's view, the timing of commercialization should be differentiated. The first is business scenario testing, and the second is the determination of a large-scale commercial market. These two points are completely different. Some commercial aerospace companies in China, including traditional aerospace companies, have found markets with inherent rigid satellite demand, but the market is fragmented or dominated by policies, with a small market size. Commercial aerospace must find a market with large-scale applications, which is the direction that Geely will choose for its future travel constellation, and develop towards the future intelligent driving, intelligent networking, automotive industry, and consumer electronics industry. This is a very large-scale market and a prerequisite for the commercial judgment of Time and Space Daoyu. Furthermore, it should be pointed out that domestic start-up companies also face some challenges. The first is the mass production of satellites, which requires high reliability and low cost to achieve mass production. The second is transportation, where we need to provide high reliability and low cost transportation to meet the deployment of the entire orbit of the satellite. The third and most crucial aspect is the implementation of business models. Otherwise, the massive investment in space infrastructure cannot be sustained for a long time, and commercial services must be implemented to support the construction cost of the entire commercial satellite constellation. At present, Spacetime Daoyu has formed a research and development system with Shanghai Research Institute as the core and Nanjing, Xi'an, and Wuhan R&D centers as the support. It has established two major business operation headquarters in Guangzhou and Qingdao, established a Beijing Business Center, and built a satellite super factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang, completing the entire industry chain business system of satellite research and development, manufacturing, measurement and control, and application. SpaceX has achieved profitability by building the entire commercial aerospace industry chain, proving that such a business model can run smoothly. The layout of the entire industry chain is the foundation for achieving closed-loop commercial applications, and on the other hand, it builds its own industry barriers through independent control of core system data and technology. Therefore, Time and Space Daoyu has accumulated various first mover advantages in market competition, such as efficient industrial collaboration, better cost control, and faster market expansion speed.
06 Jingtai Viewpoint | The integration of heaven and earth has just begun. Nowadays, China's aerospace industry is accelerating its development towards commercialization and marketization. Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises, represented by Time and Space Daoyu, have established their own effective commercial operation and profit models based on China's huge commercial satellite application market, accelerating the commercialization, scale, and globalization of commercial aerospace. Commercial aerospace is a high threshold and high investment undertaking. However, it can also bring high returns and returns. According to industry institutions, the commercial aerospace market in China has grown rapidly since 2015, with growth rates of over 20% from 2017 to 2024. By 2025, the scale of China's commercial aerospace market will reach 2.8 trillion yuan. To share such a huge market cake, one cannot do without technological innovation, talent accumulation, and resource investment. The long-term layout and deep cultivation of Time and Space Daoyu in this field will undoubtedly help itself establish a competitive advantage in the market and reap more returns.
