In the past month, with the great change of the epidemic prevention and control policy, our life has undergone great changes. Everything seems to be going back to the time when there was no "mask" three years ago. With the rapid optimization and implementation of the national epidemic prevention policy, "liberalization" seems to be in sight, and the three-year epidemic has basically ended. With the gradual implementation of the "liberalization" measures, shopping malls, restaurants, entertainment venues and tourist attractions are gradually opening up, and trans provincial/cross-border tourism and entertainment consumption are back in the air. Let's imagine what investment opportunities we have in the post epidemic era.
｜ It is well known that the overall economic situation this year is very bad, but the main indicators of the national economy from January to October 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics last month are still disturbing.
From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 6976.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and the profit decline was again expanded compared with - 2.3% in September. The focus of discussion was that life would return to what it was before 2019 after the epidemic prevention policy was liberalized, but this may be an illusion. The three-year epidemic has changed people's life and consumption habits, and also put the development prospects of various industries to the test. In the long-term coexistence of people and viruses, many industries and consumption scenarios will undergo fundamental changes. Among the main economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics from January to October, by product, the output of green and intelligent products such as new energy vehicles, solar cells, mobile communication base station equipment, etc. increased by 108.4%, 35.6% and 19.3% year on year respectively, making them the top industries in terms of growth. Among the productive services, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services (IT) and financial industry increased by 11.1% and 5.3% respectively, ranking the top two. Correspondingly, the real estate and catering and lodging industries showed negative growth from January to October, which is typical of the lonely industry.
| With the marginal impact of the epidemic weakening
he world is expected to regain its momentum of growth. Since the COVID-19 epidemic, major overseas economies have carried out large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus to promote a sharp rebound in the economy. The uncertainty index of global economic policies has dropped significantly compared with 2020. In 2022, with the marginal impact of the epidemic weakened, the world is expected to regain the momentum of economic growth. 1) The overseas economy is in a prosperous state, the global manufacturing industry continues to expand, and the manufacturing PMI of major countries is still above the boom and bust line. In January 2022, the PMI of American manufacturing industry was 57.6, which has been above the boom and bust line since June 2020; In January, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area was 58.7, up 0.7 percentage points month on month; In January, the manufacturing PMI of Japan/South Korea was 55.4/52.8, which was above the boom and bust line for 12/16 consecutive months. In China, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1
in January, down 0.2 percentage points month on month, indicating that domestic production slowed down and demand was insufficient. In the future, as the "stable growth" policy gradually increased, domestic economic growth will also stabilize. 2) In terms of labor market, employment in major countries has been substantially restored. In December 2021, the unemployment rates of the United States, Japan, Germany and the euro area will be 3.9%, 2.5%, 4.1% and 7.0% respectively, which have basically recovered to the pre epidemic level; According to the data released by the United States Department of Labor, 467000 new non-agricultural jobs were created in the United States in January, far exceeding the expected 150000. 3) In the post epidemic period, overseas service consumption (aviation, tourism, hotels, catering and entertainment, etc.) will further recover. From the data of American aviation industry, as of the week of February 13, 2022, the passenger traffic volume of American aviation industry in domestic routes has decreased by 20% compared with 2019, and that of international routes has decreased by 35%; The number of domestic flights decreased by 11% compared with 2019, and the number of international flights decreased by 21%. The overseas service industry still has room for repair. With the easing of epidemic prevention and control, the relevant consumer demand is expected to increase, bringing new drivers of global economic growth.
| Domestic offline service consumption will have a lot of room to repair in 2021.
Due to the repeated impact of local epidemics in China, consumption recovery will be weak. In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods will be 44082.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, and the average growth rate for the two years will be 3.9%. In a single month, the year-on-year growth rate of catering revenue from November to December was negative. From the consumption data of this Spring Festival, under the framework of the epidemic prevention and control policy of "dynamic reset", the repeated impact of the epidemic on service consumption is still obvious. Travel: According to the statistics of the Ministry of Transport, during the 7-day Spring Festival holiday, it is estimated that 130 million passengers will be sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation across the country, an increase of 31.7% over the same period in 2021 and a decrease of 69.2% over the same period in 2019. Tourism: The domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival only recovered to 56.3% in the same period of 2019. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 251 million domestic tourists will travel during the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, a decrease of 2.0% year on year, and it will return to 73.9% in the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 on a comparable basis; The domestic tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, and recovered to 56.3% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
Judging from the recent policies issued by the central and local governments, the State Council issued the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" for Tourism Development, which innovatively improved domestic tourism under the conditions of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and promoted inbound tourism step by step and orderly and steadily developed outbound tourism under the premise of effective control of international epidemic. Guangxi issued the Three Year Action Implementation Plan for the Development of Civil Aviation Passenger and Freight Transport in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (2022-2024), which clearly aims to restore more than 15 ASEAN passenger routes and more than 15 international freight routes within three years. The Department of Culture and Tourism of Henan Province and the Department of Culture and Tourism of Yunnan Province have issued notices on the orderly resumption of trans provincial team tourism. In the post epidemic era, there is much room for profit recovery of the "damaged" offline service consumption in the early stage.
｜ With the gradual easing of the epidemic,
many countries have gradually relaxed their epidemic prevention policies, and the global economy is expected to regain its momentum of growth in 2022. At the same time, on the basis of the continuous promotion of vaccination and the use of COVID-19 specific drugs, the probability of deregulation of domestic epidemic control restrictions is increasing, the epidemic damaged industries will also continue to enjoy the dividend of the relief policy, and offline service consumption will meet the difficulties and reverse the opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines: 1) the early epidemic situation "damaged" offline service consumption, and there is a large space for profit recovery; 2) It has global pricing power, and the supply is difficult to expand rapidly in the short term, benefiting from the expected global economic recovery of bulk commodities.
